Preview: Andrey Rublev, Felix Auger-Aliassime seeking a turnaround in Madrid final

Andrey Rublev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Outside of Rafael Nadal’s farewell to Madrid, it has not been a week to remember in men’s tennis.

The tour’s top player, Novak Djokovic, was absent. Spanish hero Carlos Alcaraz, recovering from an arm injury, was upset in the quarterfinals. The best player of 2024, Jannik Sinner, had to pull out with a hip injury halfway through the tournament. Daniil Medvedev hurt himself early against Jiri Lehecka and retired, then Lehecka turned around and did the same thing against Felix Auger-Aliassime after six games. Auger-Aliassime reached the final having completed just three matches.

Yet after all of that carnage, we’re left with a pretty interesting final. Rublev and Auger-Aliassime are Top 10-level guys, long-time big-event contenders, and popular players, and each is fighting his way out of a down period.

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For Auger-Aliassime, injuries have contributed to a lull that has lasted for more than a year, and left this one-time world No. 6 ranked 35th. Rublev, after being defaulted in Dubai for unsportsmanlike conduct in early March, had won one match in the two months since. While FAA has been helped by his opponent’s injuries in Madrid—he got a walkover from Sinner—he also recorded his best win of 2024, over Casper Ruud. Rublev did the same by beating Alcaraz in the quarters.

This will be a rare chance for both men to win a Masters 1000 event. FAA is playing his first final at that level, while Rublev will be playing his fifth—he won one of the previous four, in Monte Carlo last year.

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“It’s a great opportunity,” Auger-Aliassime says. “It’s first final of a Masters for me, new position to be in. These don’t happen often, like, every week. So we play a lot of matches, we train a lot, but when you get a chance like this, obviously you’re very motivated.”

Judging by their past contests, it should also be a close match. Rublev leads their head-to-head 4-1, but four of those five meetings have gone to a third set, including their last one, earlier this year in Rotterdam.

“All our matches that we played was always drama, always three-sets matches,” Rublev said. “Very close. The last one we played Rotterdam, I don’t know how many match points I saved.”

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Auger-Aliassime probably has the edge on the serve, though Rublev’s has been sharp this week. From the baseline, they each pound their forehands and two-handed backhands, relying on pace and placement to won points, rather than a variety of spins or speeds. Neither has a distinct edge from the backcourt, so the rallies should be long and fast-paced at the same time.

I won’t be surprised if we see tiebreakers or a third set, but Rublev seems a list farther along in his bounce-back than Auger-Aliassime. He backed up his win over Alcaraz with one over Taylor Fritz in the semis. I’d expect him to back it up again in the final. Winner: Rublev