by Pete Bodo
Yesterday, we looked at some of the intriguing match-ups coughed up by the men's draw at the BNP Paribas Masters. The draw is sort of like a roulette wheel, but one that also turns upside-down now and again, because two factors are in play: the formal draw itself, which determines potential match-ups, and the daily flow of play, which generally screws things up, often by making the pairings more compelling.
A relatively uninteresting draw can seem a gold mine of great tennis when the conditions are optimal on both fronts. And let's not forget that being in the same quarter as, oh, Andy Murray can seem either like a death sentence or a boon, from one day to the next. Tennis is a sport in which a friend—or even bitter enemy—can do the dirty work for you and set you up to look like champ (hail, to become the champ) without requiring that you lift a finger, or not much of one, anyway.
The WTA fourth-round matchups aren't as rich as was the ATP's third-round slate, but let's take a look at what's in store, and catches our eye:
!Ana Jelena Jankovic (No. 8) v. Ana Ivanovic (No. 18): This is the highlight match of the fourth round; just why it was put on Court No. 2, with an 11 am start, is either a comment on the menu of great matches today, or a sign that whoever made the schedule is looking only at rankings and seedings, rather than history and even human interest.
It's strange to think of it this way, but this match probably is the most outstanding active rivalry on the women's tour, even if the fates have determined that the women meet in the third or fourth round rather than Grand Slam finals these days. That's because it has an adequate history and a great narrative.
The relationship between these women is special, as is their role in the game in general. They launched the Summer of Serbian Love in 2008 (when Ivanovic triumphed over Jankovic, 6-4 in the third, in the French Open semifinals enroute to her first—and thus far only—Grand Slam title). They both went on to have careers that can only be called complicated, marked by significant disappointments along with triumphs.
Both these women have been ranked No. 1, but only Ivanovic has won a major title, while only Jankovic managed to finish as the all-important year-end No. 1 (2009). Ivanovic leads the head-to-head, 6-3, so in general terms she must be considered the superior player. But as the seedings suggest, Jankovic has been more consistent, and in general her outstanding athleticism is a more useful tool than Ivanovic's precision and potentially deadly shotmaking. Jankovic's game also is more forgiving and flexible, which gives her an advantage when it comes to those periods, amply known to both women, when things just don't seem to be going right.
The H2H tells an interesting story: after splitting their first two meetings, Ivanovic ran off six consecutive wins, from the summer of 2006 until that fateful meeting in the French Open semis of '08. The women have met only twice since then, with Jankovic winning both times. In their last meeting, Jankovic won on clay in Madrid, 6-1 in the third.
Both women have played well thus far in the desert; neither has lost a set. Can this match possible hit the career reset button in both women, and up reminding us of 2008? It would be nice to think so.
Caroline Wozniacki (No. 1) v. Alisa Kleybanova (No. 22): Remember 2008, and how it looked as if Kleybanova might be making a run toward the upper region of the rankings? Well, she stalled around No. 25, which is a nice living but not a position from which she can consistently threaten top players.
Wozniacki hasn't lost a set to Kleybanova in their two previous meetings (both in 2009), in fact, Kleybanova hasn't won more than three games off the reigning No. 1 in any of those four sets. One of those matches was on clay, the other on grass. Can Kleybanova do better on the relatively slow, gritty hard-courts of Indian Wells? It's unlikely. At 5'11", Kleybanova is an inch taller than Wozniacki, and she's bulit on a similarly sturdy frame. Wozniacki moves better, and gives her an advantage in the battle for turf, which leads to. . . well, you know the rest.
Maria Sharapova (No. 16) v. Dinara Safina: You have to be an utter misanthrope not to feel some joy at seeing Dinara Safina have a few good days, after becoming the first No. 1 player of either sex to lose a match at a major without winning a game (that was in Australia, a few months ago). After failing to win a singles match in nearly six months, Safina has now won two in a row, one over Daniela Hantuchova (a two-time champ at Indian Wells) and the second a shocking upset of highly-seeded but mentally shaky Sam Stosur (No. 4).
Given Safina's reputation as a head case, and Sharapova's storied toughness and competitive verve, you'd think this one's a gimme for the seeded player. But both women have had major problems in recent months with their serves (Safina hit 16 double faults against Stosur), and Sharapova has had consistency issues. And you know what? The H2H stands at three-all, although they haven't played since Safina's outstanding 2008 season. In their last match, Safina won a Roland Garros three-setter decided after the women split tiebreakers in the first two sets. This could be entertaining train wreck.
Kim Clijsters (No. 2) v. Marion Bartoli (No. 15): Clijsters hasn't lost to Bartoli in three meetings, although she lost the first set to the Frenchwoman in the third round of the U.S. Open in 2009. Clijsters needs to be careful here, because Bartoli has a tricky game that can really bother people. She'll be more of a handful than Sara Errani, whom Clijsters beat in her last match, but not until stretched to 6-4 in the third. That's a real warning sign that Clijsters would be foolish to ignore.
Nadia Petrova (No. 18) v. Peng Shuai: Okay, neither of these women is likely to win the tournament, but Petrova can succumb to nerves, although she did beat Peng here, one round earlier, last year. One way or another, this is likely to be a close, entertaining battle.
Victoria Azarenka (No. 8) v. Agnieszka Radwanska (No. 9): This is one of those matches that gets coughed up when you fill in the seedings, after the Top 2 are placed, by draw—rather than spacing them out to ensure that the privilege of having a seed is fully observed (meaning you're kept from your most likely equal for the longest possible time). The only seed Radwanska has beaten here is No. 24 Maria Kirilenko, and Radwanska will be the first seed Azarenka faces.
Azarenka took out Radawanska's sister, Urszula, in the last round, and while the family vengeance theme is tempting, we know it doesn't really factor into these battles. What is important, though, is Azarenka is an extremely volatile player, while Radwanska is a composed, conservative, probing, poking, patient digger with a talent for finding the soft underbelly of an opponent. Azarenka leads the H2H by 4-2, but she's been so inconsistent and Radwanska has been so even-keeled that you have to call this one a toss-up.
Okay, so let's pick an Upset Special: Bartoli over Clijsters, or Radwanska over Azarenka.