Big finals don’t get much tighter, or better, than Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka's melee in Madrid

The Czech and the German come to Madrid on wildly different trajectories. Kvitova, enjoying a renaissance at 33, has won nine of her last 10 matches, and just marched to one of her biggest career titles in Miami. Niemeier, meanwhile, has lost seven of her last nine, including six straight first-rounders. Kvitova is also a three-time champion in Madrid, and she beat Niemeier in their only meeting, 6-2, 6-1, in February. So this morning match in Sanchez Vicario Stadium should be a blowout, right? Possibly. Except that Kvitova had to pull out of Stuttgart last week with a foot injury, and will be making her 2023 clay debut. And Niemeier, whatever her recent record, is a shotmaker who likes a stage. Winner: Kvitova

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Kvitova will play her first clay-court match of the year.

Dominic Thiem vs. Kyle Edmund

It’s a long way to the top in tennis, and it’s even longer when you have to do it again in your late 20s. Thiem and Edmund, now 29 and 28, respectively, have spent much of the last year discovering just how arduous a comeback can be, even for a formerly elite player. Thiem, who was ranked as high as No. 3, is currently 93rd, and has a 6-11 record in 2023. Edmund, who was ranked as high as No. 14, is currently 498th, and is 0-5 at the ATP level this season. Still, they’re both moving, however slowly, in the right direction, and they still own a pair of devastating forehands. They’ve played once before, in 2017, and Thiem won in two sets. Winner: Thiem

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After starting 2023 at 1-8, Thiem has won five of eight matches during the European clay-court swing thus far.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sorana Cirstea

Cirstea is about as difficult an opening-round opponent that the second-seeded Sabalenka could have drawn. The two met just a month ago, in the quarterfinals in Miami, and it was the Romanian who emerged a surprise 6-4, 6-4 winner over the world No. 2. Up until then, Sabalenka had avoided the upsets and off days that had plagued her in previous seasons. But by the time they met, the 33-year-old Cirstea was on something of a mini-run of her own, having beaten Caroline Garcia on her way to the quarters in Indian Wells, and winning four more matches in Miami. Will that loss make Sabalenka nervous for the rematch, or help her find her focus right away in Madrid? Once upon a time, I might have guessed the former; this year, I’ll say it’s the latter. Winner: Sabalenka

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