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I picked against an American on Day 1 of the US Open—and won—but I’m not doing it again on Day 2. I like Michael Mmoh to emerge as the winner in his meeting with Karen Khachanov, even though the Russian is a -170 favorite. I’m a huge fan of Khachanov’s game, so this wasn’t an easy pick to make. But there’s a lot working against the Russian heading into this week.

When handicapping this match, it’s hard not to start with the fact that Khachanov hasn’t played a singles match since losing to Novak Djokovic in the Roland Garros quarterfinals. It will be the 27-year-old's first match in nearly three months, and it’s hard to go out and win matches on a good day. Doing so on the biggest stage in the sport, while also carrying significant on-court rust, is going to be extremely difficult.

Also working against Khachanov is that Mmoh is playing some good tennis heading into this tournament. Mmoh won two matches in Winston-Salem last week, with one of them coming over Marcos Giron. He then pushed Borna Coric to a deciding third set in the match he lost. Overall, the 25-year-old is a rock-solid 7-4 in the 11 hard-court matches he has played since returning from Wimbledon, where he earned a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime. This is a player that is brimming with confidence, and there’s no doubt he’s looking at this draw as an opportunity for him to make a small run.

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Mmoh is 7-4 in the 11 hard-court matches he has played since returning from Wimbledon, where he earned a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Mmoh is 7-4 in the 11 hard-court matches he has played since returning from Wimbledon, where he earned a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Mmoh is one of the most athletic guys on tour, so he’s going to make the court a lot smaller for Khachanov. The Russian is going to need to be on point with his ground strokes in order to get the ball by Mmoh, and I’m just not sure he’ll be able to do that without reps under his belt. Khachanov has played some doubles and spent a lot of time on the practice court in recent weeks, but nothing simulates a real singles match, especially under this type of pressure.

Overall, this is a match that should significantly favor Mmoh from the jump. The only way I see the American running into trouble is if he plays a bad set and lets Khachanov play his way into form. I’m happy to take a chance on that not happening, and I think this value is tremendous.

Bet: Mmoh To Win (+140)