I picked against an American on Day 1 of the US Open—and won—but I’m not doing it again on Day 2. I like Michael Mmoh to emerge as the winner in his meeting with Karen Khachanov, even though the Russian is a -170 favorite. I’m a huge fan of Khachanov’s game, so this wasn’t an easy pick to make. But there’s a lot working against the Russian heading into this week.
When handicapping this match, it’s hard not to start with the fact that Khachanov hasn’t played a singles match since losing to Novak Djokovic in the Roland Garros quarterfinals. It will be the 27-year-old's first match in nearly three months, and it’s hard to go out and win matches on a good day. Doing so on the biggest stage in the sport, while also carrying significant on-court rust, is going to be extremely difficult.
Also working against Khachanov is that Mmoh is playing some good tennis heading into this tournament. Mmoh won two matches in Winston-Salem last week, with one of them coming over Marcos Giron. He then pushed Borna Coric to a deciding third set in the match he lost. Overall, the 25-year-old is a rock-solid 7-4 in the 11 hard-court matches he has played since returning from Wimbledon, where he earned a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime. This is a player that is brimming with confidence, and there’s no doubt he’s looking at this draw as an opportunity for him to make a small run.
