I just posted some thoughts on James Blake over at ESPN, arguing that he's in a pretty rough spot: playing badly and going into an event with unique demands that he hasn't exactly mastered. Often, the No. 2 player in any tie has a pretty good assignment; unlike the Top Dog, he isn't expected to make a big statement or lead the charge; but on the right surface, against the right team, he can steal the thunder of the marquee player. Can you say "Igor Andreev"? (Russia vs. Chile, in February). Okay, the Marquee player in that one was the Marquis de Safin (whip me, kick me, double-fault at break point, I'll always be your fan!). But still. . .
Blake's dilemma is as sharp a comment on the importance of the draw in these ties, and just another of those elements that makes Davis Cup tantalizing. One thing I was shocked to learn while poking around in the records is how deceptive Blake's singles record is; he is 9-7 but fully 5 of those 7 singles wins were posted via best-of-three "dead rubbers" (meaningless matches played after the best-of-five tie is decided). The last thing Blake needs is anyone dumping on him, but the naked truth is that Blake has just one quality Davis Cup singles win: the one over Mario Ancic, in Croatia, on carpet.
I wonder if they can lay carpet over the hard courts in Joel Veteran's Coliseum before the start time tomorrow?
So, while many pundits decided that Rafael Nadal's abrupt decision to skip this tie ruined what might have been an interesting shoot-out, I'm thinking that the tie could be a lot closer than it may appear. A Blake loss to Tommy Robredo in the opening match would not be an upset, if you discount home-court advantage. The two men recently passed each other in the rankings, and the one heading south was Blake. And while Blake will enjoy home-court advantage, remember that Robredo is one of the just three players (the others are Nadal and Nikolay Davydenko) who won over 20 matches on both hard and clay courts last year.
Say, fellas, maybe you can just glue down that carpet, draw lines in chalk and we'll call it good!
And one other thing: the flip side of home-court advantage is visitor expectation. The pressure in this tie is entirely on the U.S. squad. It is playing at home, on its surface of choice, against a team lacking its top star, and looking at potential match-ups that give the U.S. a good shot at winning. It may be the U.S.'s best shot at winning the Cup for the first time since 1995. That's not Argentina-grade frustration (the boys in blue-and-white are pre-2004 Boston Red Sox of Davis Cup), but it's enough to make even the most patient U.S. fan a bit edgy.
Suddenly, Spanish captain Emilio Sanchez's decision to drop David Ferrer and nominate Fernando Verdasco, who gave Roddick all he could handle at the 2006 U.S. Open, is looking like an interesting gambit - forget about how well Verdasco has been playing in practice; Sanchez is doing all he can to ratchet up the pressure on the U.S. squad, and he got flat-out lucky with the draw. Thank God for the Bryan brothers; they may need to save the day for the U.S. again. In general, though, I don't like the way things are falling for the U.S. team, and I don't envy Captain Patrick McEnroe's mission.
Bottom line: It's time for Blake to cowboy up: He needs to whip Robredo in a statement match.
Man, doncha love Davis Cup!
Let's take a quick look at the three other quarterfinals. You can get the full pairings and all the relevant details at the very useful ITF Davis Cup website:
France at Russia (indoor clay, Moscow): You need to read the juicy backstory on the jockeying the two captains are doing in this one, the end result of which may be another opportunity for Davis Cup Warrior Mikhail Youzhny to emerge as a national hero. Let's see how he backs up his two-win performance in the first-round against punching-bag Romania. He wanted Safin and he got Youzhny. Hmmmmmm. . .
Also, French captain Guy Forget's cavalier attitude about the doubles has what was I thinking? written all over it. By contrast, Russian captain Shamil Tarpischev has decided to keep Safin out of the singles, meaning he can't screw things up too badly, while asking the Marquis to anchor the doubles team. This might actually bring out the best in the Marquis. By the end of this one, Tarpischev could be looking like the Bill Belichick of Davis Cup (except he dresses better!)
My pick: The Russians. They're tough, they're at home, and I'm thinking blow-out.
Argentina at Sweden (indoor carpet, Gothenburg): Every once in a while the Calcetines Rojas make a run deep in Davis Cup, only to save their reputation as the greatest tennis power never to win the Davis Cup. Juan-Martin del Potro clinched Argentina's last tie (at Austria) as a substitute, so he's off on the right Davis Cup foot. The Swede's have a great Davis Cup tradition, and captain Mats Wilander is the kind of captain who might suggest that the squad go out and collectively tie-one on the evening before the proceedings begin (which is why TennisWorld loves Mats!), but say what you want about David Nalbandian - he is 12-2 in Davis Cup singles - a monster, spare tire and all! I think he takes out Thomas Johansson in the first match and Argentina rolls.
!Haas_2 Germany at Belgium (indoor red clay, Ostend): Germany has Tommy Haas, who's off to a great start this year, but No. 2 Philipp Kohlschrieber has never played Davis Cup. This one could come down to the doubles, and if you have any idea about whether Dick Norman and Cristophe Rochus are a better doubles team than Alexander Waske and Michael Kohlmann, you're a better man (or woman), than I. Haas wins both his singles, but Belgium wins the tie and enjoys a Lilliputian moment of glory.
Okay, predictions, please. I'm off for a three-day Easter weekend with my family in game-rich Andes, but ever-faithful Steggy will be giving you plenty of material and match-call threads to keep you busy until Monday.
