Two-thousand and twelve began as a year of great promise for the WTA, one that might see the old order swept out by a new fleet of young or late-maturing champions. But as the year draws to a close, much of that promise lies unfulfilled, still in its original wrapper.
The top five players at the end of 2011, starting at No. 1, were: Caroline Wozniacki, Petra Kvitova, Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova, and Li Na. Sam Stosur, the year-end No. 6, finished 2011 strong with a win at the U.S. Open. Given her diligence and professionalism, Stosur’s fans were entitled to expect resonant statements from her in 2012.
Vera Zvonareva was still in the hunt at No. 7, clinging to contender status a year after she made two Grand Slam finals and lost both. At No. 8, Agnieszka Radwanska was a bit of an outlier, her game as unimpressive to the casual eye as it was proving problematic for her rivals. The Top 10 was rounded out by idiosyncratic but steady Marion Bartoli of France and Germany’s Andrea Petkovic. It said much about the growth of the women’s pro game that the only nation that placed two in the Top 10 was powerhouse Russia, and that Denmark, Poland, and Germany had provided some of the womanpower.
Note that Serena Williams, still not 100 percent fit, didn’t play enough to earn a place in the Top 10 in 2011 (she finished at No. 12); it was interpreted by many as a sign that a long, dry spell for the American’s rivals might finally be over. But it turns out it was only heat lightning they saw on the horizon.
As the end of this year draws near (the women are currently battling it out in the last two regular tour events, Moscow and Luxembourg) it’s obvious that despite the usual spirited game of musical chairs in the rankings, nothing monumental or even game-changing has occurred. That curious, pungent smell? That’s the scent of rubber burning from all those wheels that have been spinning in the muck and mire of everyday tournament life.
The Top 10 today, unlikely to change very much until the WTA Championships are over in about 10 days, consists of familiar names with the exception of the two new entries, No. 6 Angelique Kerber and No. 8 Sara Errani. Neither is a Grand Slam champion (although Errani was this year’s French Open runner-up to Sharapova), so we have to reserve judgment on their potential as impact players. Petkovic is gone, mostly because she’s had an injury-plagued year and hasn’t even come close to full recovery and fitness yet. Also spinning off the grid is Zvonareva, who’s had serious physical issues as well as familiar emotional letdowns. Then there’s the big loser of 2012, Wozniacki.
The Danish woman, who is the only player of either gender to finish as the year-end No. 1 twice (2010 and 2011) without having won a Grand Slam, has slipped all the way to No. 11. The wheels aren’t even spinning and smoking anymore; they’re up to the hubs in gook. The most relevant aspect of her story really amounts to an apology for Wozniacki, whose year-end ranking in 2011 was unconvincing for a variety of reasons.
A number of players were charging hard at the end of 2011, and Wozniacki’s grip on the top ranking was loosening quickly. Her rivals didn’t run out of ammo as much as they ran out of time. Hence, at the first major of this new year, Kvitova, Sharapova, and Azarenka were all a few swings of the racquet—literally—from the No. 1 ranking. It was Azarenka who finally secured it.
The 23-year old from Belarus took the ranking and has managed to hold onto it (though not continuously), imposing on the game something like order, if nothing like a “new order.” But it’s a tenuous semblance of legitimate order at best, thanks to the woman who many pundits suspected might no longer be a factor at the top of the game: Serena.
Guess again, pundits.
No matter what happens going forward to the end of the year, the naked fact is that Serena still dominates the WTA. She won <em>all</em> three of the big events in the gut of this or any other tennis year: Wimbledon, the Olympics, and the U.S. Open. For many, many people worldwide, that is the long and short of it when it comes to tennis.
Thus, one of the major takeaways this year is that very little has really changed; Serena played more and she won more. She reasserted the authority she has consistently exercised, or projected in absentia, over the tour. And what did Azarenka, the sincere, pugnacious new No. 1 say about all this?
She said it was “an honor” to play against a player of Serena’s abilities. And she also said, “(For me) she’s the greatest player of all time,” after losing that epic U.S. Open final to Williams. “She took the game to the next level. As I said before, she makes me all the time to make sure that I'm taking my game, my personality, my physical aspect to the next level.”
Curiously, the only women from last year’s Top 10 who can be said to have had a great year are Azarenka and Radwanska, who disproved skeptics and vaulted all the way to No. 2 and is now sitting at No. 4. Of course, Maria Sharapova secured her career Grand Slam when she won the French Open. But the way Serena humiliated Sharapova in their last three matches (which took place on hard, clay, and grass courts—the latter a 6-0, 6-1 demolition in the Olympic final), giving up a total of just nine measly games over the course of those six sets, makes Sharapova’s No. 2 ranking—one rung above Serena—look absurdly rigged to favor quantity of competition over quality of results.
At least Azarenka, in that U.S. Open final, gave Serena all she could handle.
The new stars of 2011 mostly disappointed us, even if they didn’t exactly crash and burn. Apart from the ones who have dropped out of the status group, the players who have the most to rue as 2012 draws to a close are Kvitova, who’s lost ground and fallen to No. 5, and the increasingly unconvincing Li, down now to No. 7 and barely in under the wire in Istanbul. Bartoli hung in there nicely and still clings to that No. 10 ranking, while Stosur’s year could be dubbed a disappointment (in relative terms) by the fact that she failed to edge out Li or Errani to clinch a berth in the season-ending championships.
Well. . . in a week’s time, Azarenka, Sharapova, and company will probably have one more opportunity to crack the Serena code. But until they do, or Serena decides to throw in the towel, the long, dry season for the WTA is likely to continue.
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Tomorrow, I’ll have some thoughts on the ATP year.