Juan Martin del Potro vs. Janko Tipsarevic
Head-to-head: Del Potro leads 3-0
This is a critical battle between two players whose shot at qualifying for the semifinals seems remote. Del Potro can blame that on his passive play against Ferrer in the first match for both men, while Tipsarevic can put it down to, well, just the fact that getting into the World Tour Finals represents a great effort on his part, but being there is apt to prove mostly that he’s in a bit over his head.
Tipsarevic played here last year as an alternate (replacing Andy Murray); this year, he’s in despite being one spot outside the Top 8, because Rafael Nadal is absent due to injury. More to the point, Tipsarevic has won just one match in this event—that one a dubious triumph over his severely depleted pal and countryman Novak Djokovic last year.
Del Potro has lost just one set in his three meetings with Tipsarevic, and it’s fairly easy to see why. Tipsarevic plays a similar, flat, first-strike game, but if they were prizefighters, the Serb would compete in a lower weight class.
A David Ferrer may be able to bamboozle a heavyweight like del Potro with great speed and defense; he can take apparent winners and send them back to extend a rally, as well as force a player like the 6’6” power baseliner to run and rush his shots more often than he likes. But while Tipsarevic is fleet and athletic, he has no great talent for working over an opponent with the equivalent of body punches. He is more likely to hit you off the court than tire you out, which is almost the exact reverse of what the doctor ordered against del Potro.
Although both men are playing for survival, del Potro’s status as a former Grand Slam champ and one-time world No. 4 is apt to arm him with a greater sense of urgency. He may have stumbled against Ferrer, and in a way that may leave him angry at himself, but he has to see this match-up as terrific opportunity to even his record at 1-1, which could put his fate back in his own hands.
One ray of hope for Tipsarevic: His U.S. Open quarterfinal with Ferrer was one of the best matches of the year (Tipsarevic lost it in a fifth-set tiebreaker). If he can be as consistent and patient against del Potro as he was in that battle, he’s got a shot.
Winner: Del Potro in two sets.