(8) Caroline Wozniacki vs. (4) Angelique Kerber
Head-to-head: Kerber leads 3-2
Both women should be fresh after walkover wins into the semifinals, and both will be willing to grind to reach the final. Playing her second semifinal in her last three tournaments, Wozniacki is bidding to reach her third Indian Wells final in the last four years. The former world No. 1 has peaked in the desert in the past: Wozniacki won the 2011 Indian Wells’ title and is 16-2 in her last 18 matches in the desert, with her losses to former Serbian No. 1s Jelena Jankovic (in the 2010 final) and Ana Ivanovic (in the round of 16 last year).
There are some stylistic similarities. Both women can counter-strike, are very fit and quick around the court, sport adidas' three stripes, and they’ve split four career hard-court matches. But the 5’10” Wozniacki has a longer reach and has served an average of 73 percent in three match wins over Alize Cornet, Elena Vesnina and Nadia Petrova. Wozniacki likes to hit the wide serve on the deuce side to set up her kill shot, the two-handed backhand. She must serve about 70 percent, as Kerber is adept at attacking second serves; the left-hander has broken serve 16 times in three straight-sets wins.
Kerber has lost seven straight matches to Top 10 opponents, with her last Top 10 wins coming in Cincinnati last August, when she toppled Serena Williams and Petra Kvitova in succession before losing to Li Na in the final. She consistently hits through the ball on both wings; consequently, the flatter-hitting German tends to maintain the depth of her drives—whereas when Wozniacki brushes up on her topspin forehand a bit too much, she can leave the ball short in the court. Because Kerber is a bit more aggressive and is more comfortable changing direction off both wings, I give her the edge.
The Pick: Kerber in three sets