The French Four

On the one hand, this year’s men’s semifinals at Roland Garros have given us a surprise. With David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga facing off in one of them, we’re guaranteed to see the first Grand Slam final to feature someone outside the Big 4 since Tomas Berdych reached the Wimbledon final in 2010. On the other hand, these four should be no surprise at all. They've clearly been the Big 4 of the last two weeks. Ferrer, Tsonga, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal: None of them dropped a set in their mostly lopsided quarterfinal wins, and all four appear to be in something close to peak form. It’s tough to go wrong in men’s tennis at the moment.

Two Scyllas, two Charybdes—neither of these matches has a clear favorite, in my opinion. Let’s take a look at what might tip them one way or the other.

(4) David Ferrer vs. (6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Head to head: Ferrer leads 2-1 overall, and 1-0 on clay

For two guys who have been on tour for at least a decade, Ferrer and Tsonga have very little history against each other. Each has spent the last few years seeded in the 5-8 range at Grand Slams, and has typically lost to one of the Big 4 somewhere along the way. Which makes this a monumental match for each of them. It’s the best chance that the hard-working, long-suffering Ferrer has ever had to reach a major final, and it’s Tsonga’s best chance since he made the championship round at the Australian Open in 2008. Each of them may have wondered over the years what life would have been like without the Big 4 around. Now they’ll find out.

Judging from what he said after his quarterfinal, Jo is feeling confident. He says he has the game right now to take it to Ferrer, and the rallies will reside on his racquet. Why wouldn’t Tsonga be confident? Off the top of my head, I can’t remember seeing him play as well as he did against Federer since he ran Nadal off the court in the Melbourne semis in ’08. And that was more of a circus-act victory, while his win over Federer was solid and methodical—Tsonga moved well, anticipated well, hit every shot with confidence, never stopped attacking, and never lost his cool or appeared to feel the home-court pressure. It felt, for the first time, as if Jo believed that he should be beat Federer. If he has that attitude against a 17-time Slam winner, he’ll probably feel the same against Ferrer.

Should he? If anything, Ferrer has been even more solid and methodical than Tsonga in Paris. The Spaniard has yet to drop a set, and he’s rounded into second-week form like a champ (or a boss, if you prefer): He won his fourth-round match over Kevin Anderson 6-3, 6-1, 6-1, and his quarterfinal over Tommy Robredo 6-2, 6-1, 6-1.

Tsonga will have the crowd, but no one enjoys a Davis Cup atmosphere more than Ferrer. As Tsonga says, the result will probably be up to him. We have a good idea of what we’re going to get from Ferrer. The question is: Did the Federer win signal a new, improved, more efficient and collected Jo? If so, he can win. If not, he’ll lose.

The Pick: Ferrer in four sets

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Head to head: Nadal leads 19-15 overall, and 12-3 on clay

Which is a more important factor in making a prediction? Current form, the surface in use, or the specific qualities of the head-to-head match-up? Your answer might determine who you take in Rafole XXXV.

Looking at those categories again, though, it might not be so simple. Who is in better form? By Wednesday’s evidence, most would say Nadal. He gave up just six games in a steamroll session over Stan Wawrinka. After a nervous start to this tournament, Rafa played his best tennis in that match. His history at Roland Garros tells us two things: First, he gets on a roll; second, he wins the tournament. He’s already made one of them happen.

Djokovic wasn’t quite as efficient in his straight-set win over Tommy Haas on Wednesday. Form-wise, though, Nole could be a special case here. He’s playing in the wake of the death of his first coach, Jelena Gencic. It’s an emotional burden, but from what I’ve seen and heard so far, it has only made his determination to win this tournament for the first time more unshakeable.

As far as the surface and conditions go, there’s no question that clay, especially French clay, is still Nadal’s turf: He’s 12-3 against Djokovic on dirt for their careers, 4-0 against him at Roland Garros, and 57-1 there overall. If the forecast holds for Friday, the weather should also benefit Rafa. It's supposed to be the hottest day of the tournament, which will help his shots jump even more than they normally do.

Judging by their career head-to-head record, you might think Rafa owns the match-up advantage as well. But he doesn’t; that, for the time being, goes to Djokovic. We know how frustrated Nole made Nadal throughout 2011, and he did it again when he beat him in straights, on clay, in Monte Carlo in April. Nadal has won virtually everything in his comeback so far this year, but he’s 0-1 against Djokovic.

I would guess that Novak will begin the same way he began that match, by rifling returns and trying to get Nadal on his heels right away. It worked last time, as the two of them returned to their 2011 baseline dynamic—Djokovic controlled the rallies, especially with his backhand, while Nadal searched in vain for an answer. This is where current form can be deceptive. To beat Wawrinka, a man who has never won a set from him, Rafa had to do what he always does. To beat Djokovic, who takes him out of his game with his speed, consistency, and backhand, Rafa will have to do something different. It’s up to him to turn the rally dynamics with Nole back in his favor, as he did in 2012.

Djokovic will come in with a deep sense of purpose: To bring home the Roland Garros trophy in memory of Gencic. By contrast, I think Nadal will come in fairly relaxed. He’s won his share of titles here, obviously, and there’s no greater cause that I can see him playing for at the moment. That should work in his favor.

One wild card: The Djokovic serve. It was unusually brilliant in the quarters, and he said he hopes he can keep it up on Friday. Another serving day like Wednesday would make life much easier for him.

Pick: Nadal in five sets

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