Two-time defending champion Czech Republic will ride a nine-tie winning streak into its opening-rounder against the Netherlands with a possible April 4-6th quarterfinal looming against Canada—if the Canadians, fresh off their first Davis Cup semifinal, dispatch Japan as expected in round one.
Watching the fervor the Czech players poured into this Davis Cup season—Tomas Berdych and Lukas Rosol outdueled Switzerland’s Marco Chiudinelli and Stanislas Wawrinka in an epic, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-7 (3), 24-22 triumph in the opening round, setting the World Group record for most games played in a doubles rubber—you know they will cling to the Cup with the grip Atlas maintains on the world. Still, I believe Canada, which boasts two solid singles players in Milos Raonic and Vasek Pospisil and an experienced doubles specialist in 41-year-old Daniel Nestor, could knock off the defending champions if that tie is staged on home soil. If that scenario plays out, Spain could host Canada on red clay and would be favored to return to the final from the top half.
The first Davis Cup tie took place in 1900 between the host United States and Great Britain at the Longwood Cricket Club. Times have changed and when the two nations renew their rivalry, they’ll take tennis to the warning track. The USA will host the tie on a portable court in the outfield of San Diego’s Petco Park, home of the San Diego Padres baseball team.
Wimbledon winner Andy Murray ended a two-year Davis Cup sabbatical and scored three victories in Britain’s 4-1 win over Croatia in the World Group playoffs in Umag. Currently training in Miami, Murray plans to play the first round if healthy. If Murray, a fine doubles player, competes, you can make a case for the Brits, who will be eager playing their first World Group tie in five years.
However, there could be complications: Murray underwent back surgery on September 23rd and has reached the Australian Open final in three of the last four years. If he makes another extended run in Melbourne, where matches can be physical, it could impact his availability for San Diego. U.S. captain Jim Courier is expected to retain the same squad—John Isner, Sam Querrey, and the Bryan brothers—that has started the last three ties. Even if Murray plays, the play of the twins from Camarillo, California, who were three-fourths of the way to the single-season Grand Slam this year, should help propel American home-run hitters into the quarterfinals.
Argentina, widely regarded as the best tennis nation yet to capture the Cup, opens against Italy and is a threat in the bottom half of the draw—if former U.S. Open champion Juan Martin del Potro plays for the Gauchos. That’s hardly likely given the fact del Potro has already ruled himself out of Argentina’s first-round tie against visiting Italy and lashed out at the Argentine Tennis Federation’s treatment in the process.
The prospect of a del Potro Davis Cup return in the near future may seem as likely as David Nalbandian and nemesis Guillermo Coria coming out of retirement to play doubles together. Yet even without the world No. 5, Argentina, which can draw on a corps of clay-courters in Juan Monaco, Carlos Berlocq, Federerico Delbonis, and Horacio Zeballos, should advance to the last eight, though Italy’s Fabio Fognini can be a dangerous Davis Cup player. The theatrical Italian owns a 10-3 Davis Cup singles record, including an 8-1 mark on clay, the likely surface.
I see Argentina advancing to the quarterfinals for the 13th straight year, but the nation will probably need del Potro to beat the Americans—even if hosting that potential quarterfinal on clay. American No. 1 Isner’s most notable Davis Cup victories—over Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2012—have come on red clay, though given Isner's own knee issues his presence is not guaranteed.
When the draw was released, some saw the Serbia-Switzerland tie as the marquee match-up of the opening round. Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka pushed Novak Djokovic in five-set thrillers at the Australian Open and U.S. Open, but Djokovic has won 15 of their 17 meetings, with his last loss to Wawrinka in 2006.
Federer’s last first-round appearance came in the 2012 first round. Could Roger return? Anything is possible, but given the fact Federer has played just two first-round ties in recent years—leading a 3-2 Swiss victory over host Romania in 2004 and suffering the 0-5 shutout to the USA in Fribourg in 2012—the chances of the 17-time Grand Slam champion adopting a two-handed backhand return may be higher than the odds of him showing up in Serbia for the opener.
Djokovic posted a 7-0 Davis Cup record in 2013, winning 21 of 22 sets he played. The world No. 2 has won 14 of his last 15 Davis Cup singles matches, with his lone loss in that span coming when he retired against del Potro in the 2011 semifinals. While Djokovic came under some criticism for not playing doubles in this year's final, he has played some of his most passionate tennis in Davis Cup. If he has wingman Janko Tipsarevic at his side for a full Davis Cup season, Serbia very well could return to the final for the third time in the last five years.