Final Preview: Marin Cilic vs. Kei Nishikori

NEW YORK—The 2014 U.S. Open men’s final will be the battle of the bracket busters. If you predicted that Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic would be the two guys still standing on the tournament’s 15th day, you’re a better forecaster than I am. Like a lot of others, I thought the two men they beat in the semis, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, would be playing in the title match. It seemed like a good bet. They had faced each other on the last day at Wimbledon two months ago, and it has been nine years since a Grand Slam final didn’t feature at least one member of the Big 4.

When Marat Safin beat Lleyton Hewitt in the final of the 2005 Australian Open, Cilic and Nishikori were 16 and 15 years old, respectively. But there’s no question they deserve to be where they are today. Cilic, who will be 26 at the end of September, routed Federer, while the 24-year-old Nishikori beat Djokovic at his own hard-nosed baseline game. There will be plenty of time after the tournament to debate whether this spells doom for the Big 4. For now, I’ll just say that I agree with what Federer said yesterday: He noted that when Stan Wawrinka won the Australian Open this year, lots of us speculated about the decline of the Big 4, but things quickly went back to normal in the French Open and Wimbledon finals. In other words, the U.S. Open is just one tournament, and it's a tournament that world No. 2 Rafael Nadal didn’t even play.

Does the fact that no marquee names will be in Arthur Ashe Stadium on Monday detract from this final in any way? It probably won’t be a banner U.S. Open swan song, ratings-wise, for CBS in the States. But for me, this is a final to savor. It’s not as if tennis fans haven’t seen their share of Big 4 match-ups over the years—collectively, they’ve played 172 matches against each other. Cilic and Nishikori have played seven times, and even the hardest-core tennis fan probably hasn’t seen more than a couple of those. These also happen to be two of the nicest guys in the game, each of whom has paid his dues, suffered his share of disappointments, and seemed destined at times not to live up the considerable expectations that were heaped on them when they were younger.

Nishikori, a pro since 2007, is an all-world talent whose mind and body have finally caught up to his supreme ball-striking ability. Both Federer and Nadal recognized that ability the first time they saw him play as a teenager, and predicted very big things for him.

The 6’6” Cilic, a pro since 2005, is carrying the torch for Big Man tennis. While the tour has grown progressively taller over the years, the giants have yet to run roughshod over the game. If Cilic were to win, he would tie Juan Martin de Potro as the tallest player ever to win the Open, and he would go some way to bringing the anticipated Big Man future a little closer to reality. Cilic's length not only helps on his serve, which has suddenly become one of the game’s biggest weapons; it gives his two-handed backhand return the extension that most players can only get with one.

Over the last two weeks, both men have overcome the problems that have held them back in the past. Nishikori, a walking injury for most of his career—he had a cyst removed from his right toe before the event and considered withdrawing—has survived two long five-setters and nearly three hours with Djokovic in brutal humidity. Cilic, who has never been assertive enough to put his size to proper use, has turned himself into a big-serving beast in New York. In both cases, these players have begun to take on the best characteristics of their coaches, Michael Chang and Goran Ivanisevic.

This will be a match-up of new faces, but we won’t need to saddle it with a “changing of the guard” or “future of men’s tennis” label. Nishikori and Cilic could be here again, of course, but while they're young, they’re also very much part of the present—neither is a comet zooming in from out of nowhere. Which is nice: We can take this final for what it is, a good matchup of deserving players who have worked hard to overcome their liabilities and live up to their talents. Plus, each has been playing an exciting brand of attacking baseline tennis at Flushing Meadows.

So who's going to win? Looking at their head-to-head record, you have to think Nishikori is the favorite. He leads 5-2 overall, and he’s won their last three meetings, two of which took place in 2014. They’ve played twice at the U.S. Open, and split those matches—Cilic won the most recent one, in 2012, in four sets.

Each man is obviously in very good form; they just went 6-1 in sets against Djokovic and Federer, after all. Each is serving better than ever and dominating the middle of the court with their ground strokes. Nishikori should have the advantage in the backhand-to-backhand rallies that typically define a lot of tennis matches these days.

I’d say the result will come down to whether Cilic can keep serving the way he has in the last two rounds. He had 19 aces in a straight-set win over Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, and 13 in his straight-set win over Federer. He took the racquet of both guys’ hands. If he can stay in that serving zone, I don’t see Nishikori beating him. But if Cilic's serve slips in any way, the advantage swings to Nishikori.

Winner: Marin Cilic, in four sets