Has this been the best—i.e., most consistently compelling—fall season in memory? On the women’s side, we’ve had highs and lows from Sharapova, Kvitova, Ivanovic, Halep, and finally Serena. On the men’s we’ve had the long drive for London, led by Andy Murray, who has played five events, won three of them, and nearly pushed himself back into the Big 4. Now, suddenly, we have a real race for the ATP year-end No. 1, between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic.

That duel will take center stage when the European fall season peaks at the Paris Masters this week, and the World Tour Finals in London two weeks later. As of now, there are four spots left for London, and six players—Murray, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Milos Raonic, and Grigor Dimitrov—vying for them. For the first time in a few years, there will be a week off between the two tournaments. That, theoretically, should bring out the best in the top guys in Paris. Here’s a look at its draw.

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Bercy Breakdown

Bercy Breakdown

Novak Djokovic returns to the tour after the birth of his first child, Stefan—any chance that he was simultaneously trolling both Federer and his own coach, Boris Becker, with that name choice? Either way, Nole will need to have his head back in the game right away this week. His quarter includes Murray, who may be gassed by now, but still hasn’t officially clinched a spot in London; and Grigor Dimitrov, who needs to make the semis in Paris to have a shot at the World Tour Finals. Djokovic is currently 490 points ahead of Federer, with 2,500 still up for grabs at the last two events.

Also here: Gael Monfils. The 2010 Bercy finalist is always dangerous at home, though he’ll have to go through John Isner in the second round.

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David Ferrer and Kei Nishikori are the names to follow in this section, as each of them has a good shot to get to London.

Nishikori’s shot is the better of the two; with Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, he’s in fifth position at the moment, 30 points behind Murray. Kei, a fourth-round loser here last year, will start against either Tommy Robredo or Vasek Pospisil.

As for Ferrer, while he has shared Murray’s five-tournament adventure this fall, he hasn’t had nearly as much success. At the moment, he’s clinging to the last ticket to London, 25 points ahead of Milos Raonic. Ferru will try to start punching his ticket by getting by past either David Goffin or Lukas Rosol in his opener.

Also here: 2008 Paris champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Tomas Berdych is another man on the London bubble, though his isn’t quite as thin as Ferrer’s. The Czech, a quarterfinalist in Paris last year, is in seventh position, 250 points ahead of Ferrer, and 150 points behind Nishikori. He opens against Adrian Mannarino.

Also here: Stan Wawrinka—Wawa has clinched his spot in London, and you can see it in his mediocre recent results. But he’ll want to find some kind of form before the Davis Cup in November.

Already out: 2012 Bercy finalist Jerzy Janowicz, to qualifier Sam Querrey

Second-round match to watch: Wawrinka vs. Dominic Thiem

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Bercy Breakdown

Bercy Breakdown

Roger Federer, not for the first time, is in an enviable position as the season draws to a close. He has won two straight tournaments, he’s within reach of a sixth year-end No. 1 ranking, he has the Davis Cup final if any extra motivation is necessary, and he won't have Rafael Nadal in his way until 2015.

Federer will start against one of two Frenchmen, Kenny de Schepper or Jeremy Chardy; might face Fabio Fognini or Ivo Karlovic after that; and then, if all goes as planned, he'll play Raonic in the quarters. If the last match happens, it will be a test. Raonic is always a threat, especially indoors, and he’s trying to reach his first World Tour Final. The only problem is that, after picking up a virus earlier in the month, he isn't playing well.

Second-round match to watch: Raonic vs. Jack Sock. They’ve already played some close ones this year.

Sleeper: Roberto Bautista Agut. He’s not vying for London, but he’s had a career year and has become a tough out.

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Semifinals: Djokovic d. Tsonga; Federer d. Lopez

Final: Federer d. Djokovic