Half a Loaf

The main theme of the lackluster round-robin portion of this year’s ATP World Tour Finals was “blowout.” There were a number of truly impressive performances but, alas, no great matches. That changed dramatically on knockout semifinal Saturday. By the time it was over—after Roger Federer had stared down four match points to guarantee that the ATP season would end with a much-anticipated Federer vs. Novak Djokovic final—the theme had dramatically shifted to “atonement.”

To start things off, Kei Nishikori went where no other man in the field had been able to venture during this puzzling year-end championships: He managed to force a match with another top-eight qualifier to three sets. The No. 5-ranked player turned the trick against the man who has dominated this event, the same man who had just set a record for fewest games allowed over the three round-robin rounds, Djokovic.

Nishikori’s reward? An 0-6 beating in that final set (the full score was 6-1, 3-6, 6-0), Ironically, Nishikori’s success rate in best-of-three-set matches that went the distance had been the best in ATP history. Coming into this one, he was 21-2 in those lengthy affairs; his .793 winning percentage slightly superior to that of Bjorn Borg’s .743. He was also better than the No. 3 man on the list—Djokovic.

Djokovic, top-seeded in London, had yielded a grand total of just nine games in the round-robin portion. That was five fewer than the previous best, logged by Federer. At the start of his semi, it appeared that Djokovic would add yet another beatdown to his tally. He had squared things with Nishikori for having beaten him in the semifinals of the U.S. Open, and had little reason to feel insecure facing Japan’s top player.

Djokovic hammered out a break in the fourth game of this match, establishing a pace in the rallies that the 24-year-old Nishikori just couldn’t match. Nishikori stirred to life in the next game, but he hit a wall after he jumped to a 30-0 lead. Djokovic served his way out of the jam, broke Nishikori again, and pocketed the set in 23 minutes.

Breaking Nishikori in the first game of the second set, Djokovic seemed ready to run away with it. But that’s precisely when that inner evil twin who has made Djokovic’s life complicated on so many recent occasions decided to take hold of the Serb’s racquet. From 30-all in the next game, Djokovic drilled a backhand off Nishikori’s service return into the top of the net and, break point down, he double-faulted away his lead.

Buoyed by the break—and rightly so, for it was the first time Djokovic has been broken in this entire tournament—Nishikori began to play the kind of tennis that powered him to the U.S. Open final in September. Hugging the baseline and firing precise placements at severe angles, Nishikori executed one of the few strategies that can undo a defensive genius of Djokovic’s caliber—he took time away, making Djokovic rush his shots. It blunted the precision and penetration of Djokovic’s counter-punching.

Soon, that evil twin was committing sloppy errors even when he was not especially put upon, and Djokovic was often caught looking off clumsy and off balance, all the wrong parts moving in all the wrong directions. When Djokovic gets that way, you just know he’s feeling nervous and out of sync; the pleading looks he kept shooting to his coaches in the player-guest box confirmed the suspicion.

Leading 4-3, Nishikori broke in a game that began with a double fault and ended when Nishikori finished a break-point rally that had a little bit of everything with a stinging backhand pass off a skyhook overhead that Djokovic barely reached. Nishikori served out the set convincingly in the next game.

Things appeared to go from bad to worse for Djokovic—or good to better, for that evil twin—when he fell behind 15-40 in the opening game of the final set. But Nishikori made a pair of costly errors that enabled Djokovic to recover to deuce. Suddenly, the evil twin withdrew from sight. Djokovic went on to win the game. The massive missed opportunity seemed to stay with Nishikori; he was promptly broken in the next game. The tables were turned, and it was Nishikori who embraced the role of victim to Djokovic’s bully through the final four fleeting games of the match.

The most telling statistic in this match was Nishikori’s pitiable, 18 percent second-serve point conversion rate. The problem can’t be put down simply to the fact that Djokovic is the greatest returner in the game. It also highlights Nishikori’s achilles heel, his dodgy second serve. The difference between the average speed of each man’s first serve was minor, 117 m.p.h. (Djokovic) to 115. But if Djokovic’s 98 m.p.h. average second serve is nothing for Boris Becker do do cartwheels over, it was pure heat compared to Nishikori’s average speed of 91 m.p.h.

The afternoon’s paying customers appreciated that this match lasted an hour and 27 minutes; it allowed them to remove their jackets, perhaps even nip out for a drink and a bite. The folks who attended the evening session faced a different problem altogether. They were forced to contemplate canceling their dinner plans or missing the last train home as Federer and Stan Wawrinka banged heads for two hours and 48 minutes before Federer emerged as Djokovic’s opponent for Sunday.

The key to this match was simple: Wawrinka failed to convert three match points when he served for the match at 5-4 (one at 40-30, and two when he had ad points). He later had another when he led 6-5 in the tiebreaker. Wawrinka had a good look on two of those chances, but his backhand let him down on both occasions—one a volley. the other a rally shot.

For all the drama today, the tournament will still get the final projected by the seedings at the start of the event, and the one most fans were hoping to see. Djokovic and Federer will play for the title, with Federer ahead in their rivalry 19-17. However, Djokovic has won 31 consecutive matches indoors and he’s been demonically skilled at breaking serve from the start of this event.

Last Sunday, it looked as if this match might be for the year-end No. 1 ranking. Djokovic killed that possibility when he swept his three round-robin matches to clinch the prestigious ranking. Federer will undoubtedly have a slightly bittersweet taste in his mouth, but half a loaf is better than none.