London Call Out

The good news mostly outweighs the bad at this year’s ATP World Tour Finals in London.

Let’s get the bad out of the way first: Rafael Nadal, as you surely know, will miss the event after having his appendix out last week; without Rafa, the tournament’s two round-robin groups fall a little flat.

But the good news comes on two fronts. First, the race for the No. 1 ranking is still being run between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, though Djokovic is significantly closer to the finish line after his title in Paris last week. Second, and perhaps more intriguing, will be the new faces at the O2: Can Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, and Marin Cilic hold their own with the big boys? The answer isn’t just an academic one, because a strong performance at the World Tour Finals can have a carry-over effect the next season. In 2013, Stan Wawrinka qualified for the tournament for the first time and reached the semis; two months later he won the Australian Open.

Could we witness a development as dramatic as that one in London? Even if we don’t, this remains a week to savor, a reward for players and fans alike. Here’s a look at how those players may fare over the next eight days.

Ranking: No. 1
H2H vs. Group: 41-5

What a difference a couple of weeks can make. Coming to Paris, Djokovic had won one tournament since Wimbledon and appeared to be sliding out of the No. 1 spot. Now, coming to London, everything is going his way again. If he wins his three group matches, he’ll clinch the year-end top spot for the third time, without having to face Federer or Andy Murray. Judging by Djokovic's 41-5 head-to-head against his group, as well as his 27-match win streak indoors, a perfect round-robin record seems more likely than not. The only caveat is that we’ve been here with Djokovic before in 2014: Each time he has looked ready to roll, he has stalled instead. Still, there’s no reason to predict that the slumping Wawrinka, the securely second-tier Berdych, or the neophyte Cilic will derail him.

Ranking: No. 4
H2H vs. Group: 19-22

His head-to-head with his group-mates isn’t quite as bad as it looks: Yes, Wawrinka is a wretched 3-15 against Djokovic, but he’s 9-5 against Berdych and 7-2 against Cilic. Since his win in Australia—was that really this season?—the Stanimal has gone back to being the very human, and erratic, player we always knew. Now he needs to become a guy that his Swiss Davis Cup teammates can count on again. Wawrinka should be motivated to build some momentum in London for the Cup final in France that follows on this tournament's heels.

Ranking: No. 7
H2H vs. Group: 12-28

He can’t be No. 1. He’s not a new face. At 29, he’s probably past trying to position himself for a breakout 2015. I’d guess that Berdych, after enduring a prolonged mid-season nosedive, is happy to be here—and five straight trips to London is an accomplishment to be happy about. But can he do anything more than fill space at the O2? Like Wawrinka, Berdych’s head-to-head against his round-robin opponents is skewed by a 2-16 record vs. Djokovic. But it’s not that skewed; the Birdman is 5-9 vs. Wawrinka, and 5-3 vs. Cilic. Berdych admitted on Friday that everyone else is playing for No. 2 in Djokovic’s group. If Stan stays in his slump, Berdych could be that guy.

Ranking: No. 9
H2H vs. Group: 5-22

His ranking and his record against his Group A competition don’t look promising. But Cilic may be the most intriguing player in the tournament. Theoretically, the setting should work for him. Six of his 13 career titles have come indoors, including his most recent, in Moscow last month. And most of those were won before he developed the bomb serve that brought him a U.S. Open title this year. Is the 26-year-old a force to be reckoned with in the future, or, like Wawrinka, will he revert to mortal form sooner rather than later? We’ll get an early answer this week.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Berdych

Ranking: No. 2
H2H vs. Group: 19-14

As his record against this group indicates, Federer has been placed into the tougher of the two halves. He's 11-11 vs. Murray, 2-2 vs. Nishikori, and he lost his last match against Raonic, a week ago in Paris. But there’s still no reason to think Federer won’t advance to the semis. He has won this tournament six times, he’s 3-0 against Murray at the O2 Arena, and his other two opponents will be World Tour Final rookies. Plus, he still has a shot to finish the season No. 1. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll want to be as sharp and confident as possible for the Davis Cup final that follows.

Ranking: No. 5
H2H vs. Group: 6-6

Nishikori’s record versus his competition underscores a fundamental fact about his week ahead: It’s tough to know how he’s going to do. He’s 4-1 vs. Raonic, 0-3 vs. Murray, and 2-2 vs. Federer. Nishikori has had a career year and separated himself, to a degree, from his fellow youths by reaching a Grand Slam final and getting to No. 5. But he’s also still fragile physically, and his psychological reaction to the World Tour Final atmosphere and competition is still an unknown. However he does, Kei’s top-of-the-bounce baseline game will be a welcome stylistic addition to the event.

Ranking: No. 6
H2H vs. Group: 16-15

Murray’s record against Group B is surprisingly close to .500. He’s 3-0 vs. Nishikori, but just 2-4 vs. Raonic. The question for Murray right now is whether the momentum he built with his three titles this fall will spill over to London, or whether he’ll suffer something of a letdown now that his goal of getting back into the Top 8 has been achieved. Murray will have the home-crowd support, but that has never been enough to push him to the final at the O2, or to beat Federer in their three matches there. Their fourth meeting will have repercussions, not just for this week, but also for next year.

Ranking: No. 8
H2H vs. Group: 6-12

Raonic, despite his record and ranking, is not a man anyone wants to face. Last week he beat Federer on his way to the final of the Paris Masters; he has a 4-2 record against Murray; and the O2's controlled indoor conditions should be to the Missile's liking—he has won four of his six career titles indoors. As with Wawrinka last year, a semifinal run at the 02 could be a harbinger of grander achievements for the Canadian in the near future.

Semifinals: Federer, Murray

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Murray; Federer d. Berdych

Final: Djokovic d. Federer