ATP Burning Question No. 3: Have We Reached the End of the Big 4 Era?

Over the next two weeks, as the new season begins and the Australian Open nears, our panel of writers and editors will debate the five burning questions on each tour.

STEVE TIGNOR, Senior Writer: Virtually every time Djokovic, Federer, Nadal or Murray has suffered a setback in recent years, there have been whispers about “cracks in the Big 4.” In 2014, those whispers threatened to turn into a scream, with two first-time men’s major champions, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic. Yet if you read between the Slams, you can see that while the Big 4 no longer win everything, they remain the players to beat. Djokovic, Federer and Nadal finished No. 1, 2 and 3, respectively, and Murray wasn’t far behind at No. 6. They also won two Slams, seven of the nine Masters 1000 events and the ATP World Tour Finals. By season’s end, the younger generation looked out of gas, while the old guard rolled on. They shouldn’t stop anytime soon: Of the four, only Federer is over 30.

NINA PANTIC, Associate Editor: To me, the era ended last year.

Murray struggled badly against his fellow Big

4 members, piling up an 0–9 record in 2014. Federer’s dominance has been dissipating, and Nadal’s injuries have resulted in longer and longer layoffs. Now, it’s left in the capable hands of Djokovic to run what’s left of the Big 4 show.

PETER BODO, Senior Writer: This tennis trust is proving to be harder to bust than some assumed last year, when Nadal was out of commission and Murray was struggling, ranked outside the Top 10 for the first time since 2008. With a 61–8 record, Djokovic was almost as good in 2014 as in his celebrated 2011 season, and Federer more or less picked up the Big 4 slack created by Murray, moving from as low as No. 8 to very nearly No. 1. Federer forced Djokovic to wait until the last tournament of the year to clinch the top spot—by which time Murray was back near the Top 5. Mark Twain might have anticipated the fate of the Big 4 when he famously remarked, “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”

ED MCGROGAN, Senior Editor: The Big 4 era is over only if you’re considering Slams won in 2014—and nothing else. By any other measure, the Big 4 are still the big men on court. They split the Slam titles with two interlopers, but they still accounted for nine of the 16 semifinal berths at the majors (the one you’re forgetting: Murray’s semifinal run at Roland Garros). And as Steve pointed out, they combined to win seven of nine Masters tournaments, plus the year-ending championships. That’s still dominance, utter or not, and it’ll take more than an occasional surge from the second tier before anyone outside the Big 4 breaks up this quality quartet.

Tuesday, January 6: Is Grigor Dimitrov for real?
Thursday, January 8: Will this be the second straight year we'll see a first-time Slam winner at the Australian Open?
Thursday, January 15: What does Roger Federer need to do to win his first Australian Open title since 2010?
Friday, January 16: What constitutes success for U.S. tennis in Melbourne?