Australian Open Final Preview: Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova

For 10 years, it has been exceedingly easy to guess the outcome of a match between Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. No rivalry—sorry, Serena fans, I meant match-up—between two Hall-of-Fame players has been so predictable. But as Williams’ winning streak has lengthened, from five to 10 to 15 consecutive victories, each seemingly more definitive than the last, it has also become more difficult to find new, ever snarkier ways of describing just how lopsided it is.

Leave it to Twitter to deliver on the snark front. As of Friday afternoon, it was clear that the most popular form of analysis before this year’s Australian Open final was to tweet a photo of a celebrity above the line, “Famous Person X looked like this the last time that Maria Sharapova beat Serena Williams.”

That last time was in the final of the WTA Championships in November 2004. I’ll add my own bit of historical snark by mentioning that the match took place nine days after John Kerry’s defeat in that year’s U.S. presidential election. The idea of Kerry as leader of the free world now seems about as strange as the idea of Sharapova beating Serena.

Even worse from the Sharapova side of things, Serena has become more dominant over time, and on all surfaces. She’s won 10 of their last 11 meetings in straight sets, and in only two of those sets has Maria won more than four games. In the lone match where she did win a set, in the 2013 Miami final, Serena came back to hand her a bagel in the third.

Why is Serena-Maria so one-sided? From a playing perspective, Serena can match Sharapova at her strength, hitting big from the baseline, while totally outdoing her when it comes to the serve. Serena pushes Sharapova out of the middle of the court and forces her to defend, counterattack, move side-to-side, and put her shots even closer to the lines than normal. All of that will be especially tough on a fairly quick surface like the one currently in Rod Laver Arena.

As Serena put it two days ago, “I think my game matches up well against her. I love playing her. I think it’s fun. I love her intensity. For whatever reason, I love playing. I have the time of my life.”

Beating anyone 15 times in a row does sound fun, but it’s also true that Serena is a different player psychologically when she faces Sharapova. The slow starts, nervous patches, and emotional dips that plague her against other opponents tend to disappear with Maria on the other side of the net. It’s often said that she’s still getting revenge on Sharapova for upsetting her in the 2004 Wimbledon final, and I do think Serena enjoys keeping the WTA's other major star, and No. 2 player, under her thumb. But I also think her extra focus is a sign of respect, rather than disrespect. Serena doesn’t want to give this opponent, of all opponents, a chance.

“Maria is playing great,” Serena said on Sharapova, who saved two match points against Alexandra Panova in the second round. “She’s in the tournament only because she’s a fighter and refuses to give up. So yeah, it’s a new match. She has nothing to lose, once again. She has only things to gain.”

According to Sharapova, though, the key for her is not to try to gain too much in any one rally. After her semifinal, she said that Serena takes her out of her game by making her cut her shots too fine.

“Her power and aggressiveness,” Sharapova said when asked what in Serena’s game gave her the most trouble. “I think that’s always made me a little bit too aggressive, maybe going for a little bit more than I had to. She’s great at making players hit that shot that you don’t necessarily have to go for—maybe going for too much, going on the line.”

And that’s Sharapova’s quandary: Her style is to hit big; how does she dial that back while staying true to her own game? It’s been 10 years since she found the balance. Still, while it’s easy to guess who might win this match, it’s even easier to guess that Sharapova will try her best to prove all of us snarky prognosticators wrong.

“I think my confidence should be pretty high going into a final of a Grand Slam,” she said, “no matter who I’m facing and whether I’ve had a terrible record, to say the least, against someone. It’s doesn’t matter. I got there for a reason. I belong in that spot. I will do everything I can to get the title.”

She can only give everything, but chances are, everything won’t be enough.

Winner: Serena Williams​