WTA Burning Question No. 1: Is Genie Bouchard Ready to Win a Major?

Over the next two weeks, as the new season begins and the Australian Open nears, our panel of writers and editors will debate the five burning questions on each tour.

ED MCGROGAN, Senior Editor: It usually takes years of consistently strong play—and coming up just short at the Slams—for a player to be saddled with this question. But Eugenie Bouchard’s 2014 campaign was so good that it’s not only fair to ask if she’s ready, it’s the biggest question of them all. And one that’s very difficult to answer.

You’d think that it’s only a matter of time before a 20-year-old who reached an Australian Open semifinal, French Open semifinal and Wimbledon final breaks through for a title. The losses were learning experiences, although Bouchard was beaten badly by Petra Kvitova, 6–3, 6–0 at Wimbledon, which took a little luster off her accomplishments. Of greater concern, however, is her lack of consistency. Bouchard’s 2014 record was 45–23, and she won just one title. She hits flat and doesn’t leave herself much room for error, yet it’s hard to say she owns a finishing shot. At times Genie seems wise beyond her years; at others she seems to wilt under the spotlight.

I hope Bouchard is standing in that spotlight, hoisting a major trophy, someday. She’s a likable player and could be one of the tour’s leaders in the post-Serena era. But she’s not a finished product, and she should expect greater resistance and added pressure after taking the tour by storm. I see Bouchard winning more titles in 2015—just not a major one.

STEVE TIGNOR, Senior Writer: At first glance, judging from her 2014 results, you’d have to say yes. She already knows how to beat the players she should beat at the Slams, and now she’ll know what to expect in the later rounds. One slip-up from Serena Williams, which we know can happen, and Bouchard goes to the top of the contenders list.

Yet I don’t think she’ll win a Slam this year; a sophomore slump seems almost as likely. That’s not because Bouchard isn’t the real thing—her exemplary mental approach alone should make her a contender for years. But her serve still needs work and, more important, so does her record against the game’s other top players: She’s 4–12 versus the women who made it to the 2014 year-end championships. Those are the same women she’ll be facing in the later rounds at the Slams. Plus, there’s that little thing called pressure. Bouchard’s rise came without much in the way of expectations; now the WTA is hoping she can become the game’s next face, its next Chris Evert. Those are big expectations.

PETER BODO, Senior Writer: Bouchard’s 2014 breakout was the most impressive in women’s tennis since the debut of the Williams sisters. Now comes the hard part: Closing the deal. Her three great results at the majors took tennis by storm, as did the commercial appeal of this young Canadian. But Bouchard also left a trail of questions in her wake after a so-so post-Wimbledon period.

Bouchard picked up her only title at Nürnberg, a minor event at which she beat nobody ranked higher than No. 52. She was also a dismal 2–4 at the four Premier Mandatory events in Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Beijing. That’s a truly strange statistic, especially when you review her performances at the more critical majors. More likely, she had trouble getting fully motivated at sub-Slam events.

For that reason, I think Bouchard can—and will—win a major this year. Her aggressive, flat, high-risk style is ideally suited to today’s game, and she has a knack for winning that cannot be taught. The great danger for her now is having been showered with too much, too soon, in the way of attention and remuneration.

NINA PANTIC, Associate Editor: While Bouchard was the steadiest WTA player at the majors, she notched just five wins over Top 10 players the entire season and isn’t quite ready to hoist a Grand Slam trophy. There will be an intense amount of pressure for Bouchard to defend all the points she racked up at the Slams, starting right away in Australia. If she doesn’t reach the semifinals, look for critics to pounce. And don’t forget how she absolutely froze in the home spotlight at the Rogers Cup, where she lost 6–0, 2–6, 6–0 to 113th-ranked qualifier Shelby Rogers.

Bouchard spent 2014 as a rising star and underdog, free to go for broke while taking a fairy-tale ride to the top. She even picked up stuffed animals along her merry way. All that changes now that she’s the highest-ranked Canadian ever. Bouchard has a solid grasp on handling the spotlight of the cameras, but she still must prove that she can handle a major moment on the court.

Wednesday, January 7: What does Serena Williams need to do to win her first Australian Open title since 2010?
Friday January 9: Which former No. 1 will perform best in Melbourne and beyond: Azarenka, Ivanovic, Sharapova, or Wozniacki?
Tuesday, January 13: Will the women be more entertaining than the men Down Under?
Wednesday, January 14: Is there a young American who can emerge the way Sloane Stephens did in reaching the 2013 Australian Open semifinals?