Keyed Up

The tournament in Key Biscayne has been known as the Lipton, the Ericsson, the Nasdaq, the Sony Ericsson, and the Sony Open. This year it’s called the Miami Open, presented by Itau. Is the shift to a “presenting” sponsor a sign of decline? If so, it would go with the general sense that the IMG-owned event has fallen behind its Larry Ellison-owned sister tournament in Indian Wells. What’s worse than missing a title sponsor? As far as the men’s draw goes, it’s missing former IMG client Roger Federer. The Indian Wells finalist is heading straight back to Europe this year.

Yet all of these concerns will likely be forgotten by this weekend, when the rest of the top men are on the court at Crandon Park. Rog or no Rog, it’s one of the year’s strongest fields. Here’s a look at how the draw may play out.

It’s still a common belief that the Indian Wells-Key Biscayne double is one of the toughest things to do in tennis. And it is, unless your name is Novak Djokovic. The hard-court-loving world No. 1 has pulled it off twice in the last five years, in 2011 and 2014. Now he has a chance to make it, to borrow a term from basketball, a triple-double.

The draw gods in Miami obviously did what they could to help. It’s hard to see how Djokovic, short of injury or accidental gluten overload, will fail to reach the semis. He’ll start against either Paolo Lorenzi or Martin Klizan; the second seed in his half of this section is No. 16 Tommy Robredo; and the second seed in the quarter overall is No. 6 David Ferrer. The Little Beast has a habit of bouncing back in Miami after a weak showing in Indian Wells, but Djokovic would still be heavily favored to beat him in a quarterfinal.

Also here: No. 12 Gilles Simon

Like Ferrer, Kei Nishikori seems to prefer Miami to Indian Wells—in 2014, he upset Federer here in the quarterfinals. In 2015, as the fourth seed, he’s favored to make the semis, and his road early on looks fairly clear. The seeds in Knish’s half are No. 32 Viktor Troicki, No. 18 David Goffin, and No. 13 Roberto Bautista Agut.

It’s the other half of this section that looks more interesting. Milos Raonic, fresh off his semifinal appearance in Indian Wells, is the highest seed, but there are other names of note nearby: Grigor Dimitrov, John Isner, Vasek Pospisil, and a returning Juan Martin del Potro. Fortunately for Milos, Delpo and Pospisil play each other in the first round, and Dimitrov plays the winner.

First-round match to watch: Del Potro vs. Pospisil

Also here: Borna Coric, who opens against Andreas Hairer-Maurer, the man he just beat in the first round in Indian Wells.

Wild card, again: Ryan Harrison

Where does Andy Murray stand after Indian Wells? He reached the semis, which is good; but with his one-sided loss to Djokovic in that round, he ran his record since his 2013 back surgery to 0-11 against the Big 3—that's bad. Is he ready to make another push up that hill, starting this weekend? Murray does his training at Crandon Park, and it has shown in his results: He won Miami in 2013 and reached the final there in 2012. This year his draw makes another deep run look plausible. The three seeds in Murray’s half of this section are Kevin Anderson, Leonardo Mayer, and Santiago Giraldo.

The highest seed on the other side of this quarter is No. 7 Stan Wawrinka. The U.S. spring hard-court season has traditionally not been kind to Stan, and he went out in his opener in Indian Wells to Robin Haase. In Miami, he could get a look at Aussie teen sensation Thanasi Kokkinakis to start.

Also here: Feliciano Lopez

Wild cards: Kokkinakis, whom you probably know by now, and Kyle Edmund, whom you might know soon; the 20-year-old Brit has had a strong spring on the Challenger circuit.

World No. 3 Rafael Nadal will take Federer’s place at the bottom of the draw. Rafa has never won this tournament, an odd fact given that he likes its slow hard courts and Latin vibe, and that he made his first serious breakthrough there by reaching the final as an 18-year-old in 2005. Nadal, who says he’s getting better with every match, seems ready to make another run, despite rolling an ankle in practice yesterday.

Rafa may start against some familiar company: He could play Nicolas Almagro his first match and Fernando Verdasco in his second—his combined record against his two fellow Spaniards is 23-2. Nadal also may not mind seeing that Tomas Berdych is the second seed in his quarter. Rafa owned the Birdman until he lost to him in Australia in January, but that defeat should just make him more motivated not to let it happen again.

Returning: Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who could meet in the third round.

Question Marks: Bernard Tomic and Ernests Gulbis. If Gulbis can manage to win two matches, he might face Nadal, a match-up that has produced fireworks in the past.

Semifinals: Nishikori d. Djokovic; Nadal d. Murray

Final: Nadal d. Nishikori