Seeing Red Again

For tennis fans in New York, it was hard to tell on Monday morning whether spring had announced itself with sunshine and warmer temperatures outside, or with sunshine and warm temperatures on TV. Yes, there was nice weather here, the first in what feels like months; but it couldn’t compare to our first sightings of the Monte Carlo Country Club, where opening-round matches at the Masters event there were underway. Even from an ocean away, and even if it only lasts a week, that's not a bad view to wake up to each morning.

It also shouldn’t be a bad tournament to watch. A decade ago, the Monte Carlo event seemed like it was about to topple off its own cliff and into the sea. It had its mandatory status revoked, and was on the verge of being demoted out of the Masters Series. But many of the players, especially those from Europe, rallied around the tournament, which has a 118-year pedigree and the sport’s most spectacular setting. Fast forward to 2015, and Monte Carlo is as important to the ATP tour as it has ever been—eight of the Top 10, including the Big 3, are entered, and there’s a lot at stake for everyone involved as they begin their clay campaigns in earnest.

With the tournament's first two days in the books, here’s a look at the draw, and a few thoughts on how it might play out.

Novak Djovokic has been here before. Not just in Monte Carlo, obviously—he's a resident—but as the player, tentatively, to beat coming into the clay season. For the last four years, he has looked ready to win his first French Open and join Nadal and Federer as a career Grand Slammer. During those four years, Djokovic has broken through in Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome. In Paris, though, Rafa and Rog have conspired to frustrate him. Is the fifth time a charm for Novak?

Djokovic’s quarter, at least, looks fairly charmed. He starts on Tuesday against Albert Ramos-Viñolas, would play the winner between Bernard Tomic and Andreas Haider-Maurer after that, and is slated to face eighth seed Marin Cilic in the quarters. It’s hard to see an upset alert being issued on Djokovic’s march to the semifinals.

Returning to dirt: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Sleepers: Tomic, David Goffin

Already out: Ernests Gulbis, who won just one game from Haider-Maurer, and has just one win so far in 2015.

For those of you looking forward to the possibility of a French Open quarterfinal between Djokovic and the fifth-ranked Nadal, Monte Carlo offers a slightly less shocking preview: The two rivals are scheduled to meet in the semis.

First, though, Nadal is scheduled to meet the man who beat him here last year, David Ferrer, in the quarters. If anything, Ferrer has been in better form so far in 2015—he’s 22-3 with three titles, while Nadal is 15-5 with one. Rafa’s 22-6 head-to-head record against his countryman can’t be forgotten, of course, but the last time we saw Nadal he was losing, in nervy fashion, to another Spaniard, Fernando Verdasco, in Miami. For Ferrer, this is a chance to show whether his sterling first quarter of the season might mean something more. Can he, at 33, make himself a contender for the French Open?

For Nadal, Monte Carlo is the place where he has traditionally either turned his season around or kicked it into high gear. Can he do it again, and win it for a ninth time? Rafa has, by all accounts, been working hard in practice to fix whatever problems he has, and he must feel like he has new life when he steps onto the clay at his favorite event. Aside from Ferrer, though, Nadal may also have to find his way past Dominic Thiem in the second round and John Isner in the third—each has the weapons to trouble him. And the most startling stat I read today was something I already knew but hadn’t quite processed: Rafa hasn’t won in Monte Carlo since 2012.

With the absence of Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic slides into the coveted No. 4 spot. Not only does he avoid the Big 3 until the semis, the Canadian's quarterfinal opponent is slated to be Tomas Berdych, a man he has, surprisingly, beaten three times in their four matches. Raonic had a strong clay season in 2014, and he has a good draw to start this one.

Sleeper: Roberto Bautista Agut. He was on fire in his quick win over Benjamin Becker on Monday; he’ll play Kohlschreiber next, and possibly Berdych after that.

What does Federer, the No. 2 seed, still have to prove? Well, Monte Carlo is one of the few titles that has eluded him. He was close against Rafa 10 years ago, and was close again when he faced Stan Wawrinka in the final last year. After skipping Miami, Federer will put a surprising amount of effort into the clay season—besides Monte Carlo, which he doesn’t have to play, he has also added a 250 dirt event in Istanbul in two weeks. But he says he feels good, he still has hopes of returning to No. 1 someday, and, as I wrote at the top, who wouldn’t want to be in Monte Carlo in the springtime?

Federer could also be involved in an entertaining match or two along the way. If he wins his opener, he might play either Gael Monfils or Alexandr Dolgopolov. On the other side of his quarter are Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov. Each could go deep here; for the moment, though, after their disappointing spring hard-court seasons, they might just be happy to string a couple of wins together.

First-Round Match to Watch: Dimitrov vs. Verdasco

Possible Second-Round Match to Watch: Monfils vs. Dolgopolov

Player of Interest: Wawrinka. After a strong start to the season, his ranking is down to No. 9, and he has 1000 points to defend this week.

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Ferrer; Federer d. Raonic

Final: Djokovic d. Federer