Ebb and Flow

Tennis seasons go in waves. The players ride a swell for a week or two or three, but eventually it crests and dumps them back on the beach. All they can do is pick themselves up, paddle back out, and try to latch onto another ripple of momentum. Only the best of the best—Serena, Roger, Rafa, Novak—are immune to the ebbs and flows of the tennis tides. If you want an idea of how good those four have been, imagine a group of surfers who stay upright on their boards for the better part of a decade.

The vast majority of pros will come down to earth—i.e., revert to their normal, non-Slam-winning-level—sooner rather than later, and someone else will take their place, temporarily, on top of the wave. When these players are winning, we'll wonder if they've turned a corner, if they're ready for a breakthrough, if they can win a major someday. Most of the time, we shouldn't bother wondering, and so far Madrid has shown us why.

Over the first four days, this tournament has been a big clay beach on the women's side, where many of the players who have been riding high this spring have suddenly seen their momentum run dry. It’s not all that surprising that it would happen here. The draw featured 64 of the world’s best players, with no byes and very few easy openers. You might, if you're a Motown lover, call Madrid a Martha Reeves type of event: There’s nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

Consider these results:

—Angelique Kerber, winner in Charleston and Stuttgart, and the woman on the biggest roll of all, had her momentum summarily snuffed out by Sam Stosur in three sets in the first round.

—Madison Keys, breakthrough semifinalist in Melbourne and finalist in Charleston, was dismissed in two sets by Kaia Kanepi in her opener.

—Simona Halep, the second-best player since the Aussie Open, went out to Alizé Cornet in straights in the first round.

—Timea Bacsinszky, the talk of the tour after her titles in Acapulco and Monterrey in February and March, was no match for Maria Sharapova in their first-rounder.

—Karolina Pliskova, champion last week in Prague, lost in the second round to Caroline Garcia.

—Elina Svitolina, champion last week in Marrakech, lost in the second round to Ana Ivanovic.

—Venus Williams, who has had a strong 2015 so far, had the toughest first-round draw of all for a seed. Against Victoria Azarenka, Venus got off to a slow start before beginning to find her form; it might have been enough to get her past most opponents, but not Vika.

Yet even as these women were falling off their respective waves, another group of women who had been struggling suddenly looked ready to take their places.

—Maria Sharapova, after a disappointing spring, looked sharp in beating Bacsinszky and Maria Duque Marino.

—Agnieszka Radwanska has, for the moment, put a halt to her free fall with two straight-set wins.

—Petra Kvitova, after being mentally and physically out of it for months, has unearthed her alter ego P3tra with two three-set wins.

—Ana Ivanovic, whose momentum from 2014 was stopped cold in Australia, and who fired her coach this weekend, showed a few tentative signs of self-assurance in her win over Svitolina. At the start of the match, her service toss was all over the place; by the end, with a break point at 4-4 in the second set, she had constructed a rally perfectly and finished it with a beautifully measured inside-out forehand winner.

—Eugenie Bouchard, whose slump continued with an opening-round defeat in Madrid, hasn’t won a match since March, and she’s lost to five players ranked outside the Top 60 during that time. Before you call her a flash in the pan, though, remember that in 2014 she lost in the first round in Madrid and Rome before reaching the semifinals in Paris and the final at Wimbledon.

So the tours turn. There are mini-surges and mini-slumps; few players can be counted on to dominate for long, and few, no matter how bad they may look during any given week, can be counted out for long.

Madrid is four days old already, but it isn’t until the fifth day that the main event gets underway. On Wednesday the biggest of the men’s names—Federer, Nadal, Murray—make their debuts, while some of the most anticipated match-ups in both draws will be played. Here’s a quick look ahead at a full day of tennis. (See the Order of Play here.)

These two friends have had a see-saw relationship on court: From 2009 to 2011, Caro won five straight over Aga; from 2011 to 2013, Aga won three straight over Caro; last year Caro turned it back around by winning both of their meetings in straight sets. Neither is at their best on clay, but Wozniacki, a runner-up in Stuttgart, has been much better in general in 2015. Are Aga’s two wins this week a sign of improvements to come, and another turnaround in this rivalry? If so, I’m guessing it won’t happen on Wednesday. Winner: Wozniacki

Sharapova came back from the brink of defeat to win their first meeting, at the French Open in 2011, and she hasn’t lost a set to the Frenchwoman since. But Garcia has slowly scaled the rankings ladder over the last four years, and with 12 aces, 40 winners, and just 18 unforced errors, she played one of the best matches of her career to beat Pliskova on Tuesday. Still, Maria’s form in Madrid has steadied, and that should be enough against the 21-year-old. Winner: Sharapova

OK, a 14-3 head-to-head record doesn’t quite qualify this as a rivalry, but when it comes to Serena, it’s the closest thing we’ve got at the moment. Azarenka played well in beating Serena’s sister Venus on Sunday, and she’s desperate to get back to her rightful place in the Top 10. Serena, meanwhile, looks like she’s starting to take this whole Perfect Season thing seriously. That’s not good news for the rest of the tour. In their two previous meetings on clay, Serena has won by identical 6-1, 6-3 scores. Winner: S. Williams

Rafa and the 54th-ranked Johnson have never played. The American will obviously have nothing to lose, which should let him swing away at his already heavy forehand more freely. The bigger question will be how his backhand—a two-hander, fortunately for him—will withstand Nadal’s lefty assault. On the one hand, this match should give Rafa a safe way to gain some confidence; on the other hand, if things don’t go smoothly, it will be interpreted as another sign of impending doom. But no pressure. Winner: Nadal

The Aussie is back where he loves to be, on the big stage, and he’ll finally have a crack at the game's leading man, Federer. Each of them is coming off a good week; Federer was a winner in Istanbul, while Kyrgios reached his first career final, in Estoril. Federer likes the quicker ball in Madrid, but the hard-hitting Kyrgios should like it, too. In his previous matches against the Big 4, Kyrgios has beaten Nadal at Wimbledon, and been tied up in knots by Murray two other times. I think this will be something in between. Winner: Federer

Dimitrov won in surprisingly straightforward fashion when they met in Monte Carlo last month. Let’s hope for a few more fireworks, of the shot-making variety, this time around. Winner: Fognini

For more on the Madrid Open, listen to this week's TENNIS.com Podcast.