The Big 2

There’s a Big 4 among the men, but when it comes to Wimbledon on the women’s side, we begin the tournament talking about a Big 2. It may be odd at first to see Petra Kvitova as the second seed, on the very bottom bracket, but she and Serena Williams have lifted themselves about the rest of the field at the All England Club in recent years. Serena won it in 2009, 2010, and 2012; Petra won it in 2011 and 2014. The question, as we preview the draw, is whether anyone can come between them in 2015. (Click here for the women's draw.)

Should we believe Serena when she says she isn’t worried about the calendar-year Grand Slam? It’s not as far-fetched as it may sound. She’s always focused on the next major title, and that title alone. She knows there’s enough pressure trying to win one.

And Wimbledon, despite her love for it, is hardly a lock for her. She last won the title in 2012, and went out early to Alizé Cornet in 2014. While she is coming off a French Open victory, it was hardly an easy road—at some point, she’s going to pay a price for a sluggish start or a mid-match lull.

Especially in this quarter. Serena could face Dominika Cibulkova or Caroline Garcia early, but her bigger worries come, potentially, in the fourth round, where she might meet her sister, Venus; and the quarters, where she could see either Victoria Azarenka or Ana Ivanovic.

While Serena remains the percentage pick, after her French Open it will be a surprise if she isn’t pushed to the brink at least once before the semifinals. It’s tempting to think that Venus, who also happens to be a five-time champ here, will send her over that brink in the round of 16. Venus won their last meeting, last summer on hard courts in Montreal, and if anything she loves playing at Wimbledon even more than her younger sister does. But I still can’t bet against Serena when it’s all on the line.

First-round matches to watch:

—Daniela Hantuchova vs. Dominika Cibukova. Let the best Slovak Fed Cupper win.

—Venus Williams vs. Madison Brengle. Can Venus get herself to a fourth-round showdown with Serena? She’ll start against a fellow American.

Sleeper: Belinda Bencic. She’s in the Eastbourne final, and slated to meet Ivanovic in the third round.

As odd as it is to see Kvitova’s name at the bottom of the draw, it’s just as strange to have Maria Sharapova’s pop up a quarter of the way down. She’s the No. 4 seed this time, and the top seed in this section. The only difference, perhaps, is that she’s supposed to face Serena in the semis rather than the final.

Getting there won't be easy. Sharapova won this event at 17, but has returned to the final just once, in 2011. She’ll start against Johanna Konta, a British wild card who had a nice run in Eastbourne this week. Also near Sharapova are Daria Gavrilova, who beat her earlier this year in Miami; Flavia Pennetta, who beat her in Indian Wells; and 14th seed Andrea Petkovic, who beat her at the Australian Open four years ago. The second-highest-seed in this section, Lucie Safarova, beat Sharapova in Paris earlier this month.

Which leads us to our next question: Is this the tournament where Safarova begins to feel the weight of an expectation or two on her shoulders? The French Open finalist and new member of the Top 10 has semifinal points to defend at Wimbledon. She’ll open against a decent grass-courter in Alison Riske, could play either Barbora Strycova or Sloane Stephens in the third round, and is scheduled to face Karolina Pliskova in the round of 16.

Sleeper: Pliskova

Tough First-Round Draw: Strycova vs. Stephens

The top two seeds in this section, Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki, would appear to be vulnerable. Halep went out early at the French Open and has had a coaching shake-up, while Wozniacki retired in Eastbourne on Friday with a back issue.

And there’s plenty of ball-striking talent here to pick up their slack. Former finalist Sabine Lisicki, French Open semifinalist Timea Bacsinszky, and two-time Slam champ Svetlana Kuznetsova are on Halep’s side. On Wozniacki's, there's Garbine Muguruza, and Birmingham champ and former Wimbledon semifinalist Angelique Kerber.

Sleeper: Lisicki

How is the state of Kvitova’s health? She pulled out of Eastbourne citing a virus, but she’s practicing at what appears to be full speed at Wimbledon. That’s not a good sign for her opponents. As we know from her lightning runs to the title here in 2011 and 2014, this is her fortnight.

Can anyone in Kvitova’s quarter cut it short? She’ll open against Kiki Bertens; the first seed she could play is Jelena Jankovic, and there are several quality names scattered around the section: Ekaterina Makarova, Elina Svitolina, 2014 finalist Eugenie Bouchard, 2012 finalist Agnieszka Radwanska, and Madison Keys, a grass lover—or at least liker—who beat Kvitova in Australia this year.

Keys lost early, and badly in Eastbourne, but maybe that’s not such a bad thing. Expectations have been lowered, which is how American players seem to like it these days.

Sleepers: Keys and Radwanska. Is Aga finally ready to rebound? She’s in the Eastbourne final as a I write this.

First-round match to watch: Alizé Cornet vs. Ana Konjuh

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Safarova; Kvitova d. Kerber

Final: S. Williams d. Kvitova