Spanish Inquisition: What's at stake for Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals

We know what this quarterfinal—the quarterfinal—means to Novak Djokovic. At what seems like the peak of his powers, he has a chance to remove the biggest reason he won’t win his first French Open and complete the career Grand Slam. The world No. 1’s form has been imperious in 2015, and with a couple of losses already under his belt—two, exactly, which came at the two least significant tournaments he played—he doesn’t have to deal with the added pressure of a flawless record, like he did at Roland Garros four years ago. As I wrote during the Australian Open, Djokovic has a chance to enter an entirely new plane of tennis excellence, and winning this match is a necessary step.

But as Rafael Nadal, the man Djokovic will face in Wednesday’s quarterfinal, noted after his fourth-round win over Jack Sock:

If Djokovic is to hand the nine-time champion just his second-ever loss at Roland Garros, he will still have to complete the mission, much like Roger Federer did five years ago in Paris, after Nadal was eliminated. And that’s something we can get into if that scenario comes to pass.

But the point Nadal made was worth remembering, in the midst of all this hype. As is this: What does this match mean to Nadal? It’s clear what is stake for Djokovic, but Rafa has a lot riding on the outcome of as well.

The relationship between Nadal’s style of play and his state of mind makes for a fascinating case study. Watching Nadal for the first time, you’d never get the sense of the intimate connection between his physical brand of tennis and his mental well-being. But as we’ve witnessed for so many years, Nadal’s tangible and intangible meters need to be near full for him to excel at the astoundingly high level. It’s a delicate yet devastating balance.

This has become apparent over the past few seasons, which coincides with the rise of Djokovic from a very good player to one of the sport’s all-time greats. When Nadal plays Djokovic, much like when Federer plays Nadal, the Spaniard’s normally inexhaustible reserves take a noticeable dip.

“Always when somebody wins against the others, and the opposite is always the same thing: The opponent changed something,” Nadal said after a 6-3, 6-3 loss to Djokovic earlier this year in Monte Carlo. “Novak was able to beat me in 2013 here in the final, too. He beat me in Rome last year, too. He’s a fantastic plater. He can beat me all the time.”

Djokovic has done that to Nadal over the past four years at a variety of venues. One by one, he’s been able to dethrone the king at each of his clay strongholds. Doing so at Roland Garros would be the biggest coup of all, although I get the feeling that Nadal, who has praised Djokovic repeatedly in press, is ready to accept that it’s a very real possibility.

“I will face that this year I wasn’t so good,” Nadal said after a 6-3, 6-2 loss to Andy Murray in the Madrid final. “Nothing happens. The world will continue. I will continue. Here it finishes. This is sport. Sometimes things work out better and others they don’t, and it doesn’t matter. That’s all. That’s all the story. This is just a game.”

None of this is to say that Nadal doesn’t deeply want to defeat Djokovic, but we would enter a new phase of both players’ careers if the Serb prevails. This quarterfinal may not be the biggest match in Nadal’s career—he became a new kind of champion by winning the iconic 2008 Wimbledon final—but it may be the most important match he’s played since.

There are also some cold, hard facts to consider. With a loss to Djokovic, Nadal would fall to No. 10 (and possibly No. 11) in the world rankings. As strange as it is to see a “6” next to Nadal’s name, two digits would be shocking. How low could Nadal go by, say, the U.S. Open? A Federer-Nadal Wimbledon quarterfinal would remain in play, as well.

Then there’s the question we seemingly put off until after every French Open: Can Nadal pass Federer on the Grand Slam title count? For as close as he is to 17 Slams, I don’t think Nadal gets the respect his haul of 14 warrants. The majority of those majors were won at Roland Garros, which is often held against him. But if Federer’s win there in 2009 was so cathartic, and a Djokovic win there would be so significant, why do we diminish the Nadal nine in any way? It’s not as if all 14 of his Slams came on clay—more than a third were won on grass or hard courts.

If Nadal is to win “La Decima” on the terre battue, it would go down as one of his most impressive accomplishments, especially considering the recent struggles he’s shown on his favorite surface. It would get him to within two Slams of Federer and would allow him to retain his trump card over Djokovic. It would likely be the biggest win in tennis this year, on either tour, no matter what happens next.

This quarterfinal means everything to Djokovic, but it means plenty to Nadal, as well.