Serena says that her sister is in better form, and has the “advantage” coming into their 26th meeting. Is she trying to take some of the pressure off of herself? Probably—Serena has enough at the moment with the whole calendar-year Grand Slam thing happening. By every measure, she’s the favorite in this one. Serena is ranked No. 1; Venus is No. 16. Serena hasn’t lost a match at a major since Wimbledon 12 months ago; until this year’s Australian Open, Venus hadn’t reached the quarterfinals of a Slam since 2010. Serena leads their head-to-head 14-11, and has won five of their last six matches. Serena has 20 majors, Venus has seven.
But Serena also has a point when she talks about their relative form at the moment. Venus hasn’t lost a set at Wimbledon so far, and more important, she has been playing better in the tight spots than she normally does these days. Something about this tournament brings out Venus’ self-assurance and resourcefulness like nowhere else; this is where she got her start as a major champion, after all. Serena, on the other hand, had to survive another nervy afternoon, and win by the barest of margins over Heather Watson, just to make it here. Venus also won the last time they met, in Montreal in 2014.
Venus has a real chance here. Her serve and return, the two most important shots on grass, aren’t quite at her sister’s level, but they’re better than just about anyone else’s. And because Venus is less likely than any of her other opponents to give a lead back, Serena probably won’t be able to succumb to another panic attack and still come back to win. Because she knows that, I don’t she’ll have one. Winner: Serena Williams
The thought of this might put a scare into the home folks at Wimbledon. After all, Karlovic is averaging 45 aces per match through his first three rounds. But Murray, and his return, enjoy facing big servers, and especially this big server. He leads their head to head 5-0. Winner: Murray