This Wimbledon final is, if nothing else, appropriate.
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are the No. 1 and 2 seeds, respectively. They played a classic final here last year. They’ve had one of the sport’s most competitive long-running rivalries—at the moment, Federer leads it 20-19. Each has beaten the other at all four majors.
Perhaps most intriguingly, while one of them, Djokovic, has been the player of the year so far, the other, Federer, is the player of this particular moment. As consistent as Djokovic has been in 2015, and as solid as he was once again in his straight-set semifinal win over Richard Gasquet on Friday, all of the talk is suddenly about Federer. That’s how good he was in his own straight-set dismantling of Andy Murray two days ago.
In particular, that’s how good Federer’s serve was. He hit 20 aces (including 11 in the first set), won 84 percent of first-serve points, and didn’t face a break point after the opening game, all against one of the game’s best returners. This wasn’t just a one-time thing, either. Federer has been broken only once in this event. Murray says that if Federer continues to serve that way, he’s going to be exceedingly difficult to beat.
The question is: What are the chances Federer serves, and plays, as well against Djokovic as he did against Murray? Last year, after watching Federer roll past an overmatched Milos Raonic in the semifinals, I picked Federer to beat Djokovic in the final. If anything, Federer’s win over Murray was more impressive than the one over Raonic last year, but it does go to show that the quality of an opponent matters. I don’t just mean that Djokovic will make more returns and hit better shots than Murray; I also mean that Federer will approach the match with a different mindset. I’m guessing that, even if he gets ahead early, he won’t be as relaxed and sure of himself against Djokovic as he was against Murray.
How about Djokovic? Questions abound. He has won two of his three meetings with Federer this season, and his most recent victory, in Rome, was a confident straight-setter. Since then, Djokovic had that confidence shaken in the French Open final by Federer’s countryman, Stan Wawrinka. Will that play a role here? Last year Djokovic bounced back from an equally bitter defeat in the French Open final, but it wasn’t easy. So far at Wimbledon this time around, he has been as solid as necessary, and no more. Will he be nervous about the prospect of another final-round defeat? Or will that prospect make him more determined? After Federer’s win on Friday, and the subsequent buzz about it, could Djokovic actually feel like the underdog? Would that help or hurt him? Finally, how will he react to the Centre Court crowd, which will be overwhelmingly against him for the third straight year? In 2013, Djokovic seemed bothered by the pro-Murray audience, but last year he kept his head even while having to listen to the mighty roars for Federer.
To find out, we’ll just have to watch. Federer is the more likely to win in straight sets; Djokovic the more likely to win in five. If it goes four, the odds seem 50-50 to me. In that case, when a match feels like it can go either way, the safe bet is Djokovic.
Winner: Novak Djokovic