Opening Line

At first glance, the 2015 U.S. Open men’s tournament would seem to be a two-man event. After this season, and this summer, it’s hard to realistically imagine anyone other than world No. 1 Novak Djokovic or world No. 2 Roger Federer holding up the winner’s trophy two weeks from now. But then, we might have thought something similar last year, and the two men who played for the title ended up being Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori (who beat Federer and Djokovic in the semifinals, respectively).

Here’s a look at this year’s draw, and whether any similar surprises might be in store for us again.

On the one hand, Djokovic, despite making the semifinals or better at the last eight Opens, has won the title just once. While he has always loved the buzz inside Ashe Stadium, he hasn’t always loved the wind that swirls there. In each of the last three years, he has been caught and passed by a hot opponent—Andy Murray in 2012, Rafael Nadal in 2013, Nishikori in 2014—on the final weekend.

On the other hand, Djokovic’s lone title came in 2011, a brilliant season much like the one he’s having this year. And that infamous wind in Ashe may not swirl the same way now that there’s a roof on top of the stadium. Whatever the conditions, these days it’s pretty much a given that Djokovic is going to be in the mix at the end of any tournament he enters.

Djokovic’s draw looks OK. He starts against Joao Souza of Brazil; he could play Vasek Pospisil in the second round; the first seed he could face is Andreas Seppi; the highest seed in his half is David Goffin; and he’s slated to play Nadal in the quarters.

That is, of course, if Rafa makes it there. Nadal begins against Borna Coric, a teenager who beat him last year in Basel. The two seeds in Rafa’s half, Fabio Fognini and Milos Raonic, also own wins over him this year.

Also here: Mardy Fish, who will begin his final tournament against Marco Cecchinato of Italy.

First-round matches to watch:

—Nadal vs. Coric

—Fernando Verdasco vs. Tommy Haas

This is the land of the walking wounded, and of opportunity. Both of the top two seeds, Nishikori and David Ferrer, were forced to pull out of Cincinnati with injuries.

Of the two, Nishikori, who is always returning from one injury or another, is the most likely to bounce back. Last year’s runner-up has a potentially challenging opener against Benoit Paire (though Nishikori has won all five sets they’ve played), and in the third round he could get either Tommy Robredo or an in-form Alexandr Dolgopolov. If—a big if—Dolgo plays the way he did in Cincy, he could pose problems.

Question marks: Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils. Cilic won the Open last year and Monfils had match points to reach the semifinals, but neither has played as well since. Will they be inspired by a return? Wouldn’t it be like Monfils to be accused of tanking in Cincy, and then turn around and go on a run in New York?

Potential third-round match to watch: Monfils vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Jo leads their head to head 4-2.

Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka are the top two seeds here. If Murray is going to get back to the semis again, he may have to hope that someone else knocks Stan off. The last time they played, in the quarters at the Open in 2013, Wawrinka won 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.

First things first, of course: Murray has an interesting opener, against Nick Kyrgios. If the draw gods wanted to send naughty Nick home early, they picked the right man for the job. Murray has won all eight sets they've played.

Also here: Jack Sock, who could face Wawrinka in an explosive third-rounder.

First-round matches to watch:

—Murray vs. Kyrgios

—Frances Tiafoe vs. Viktor Troicki. The Kalamazoo junior champ has something of an opportunity against the Serb, who hasn’t won a match on hard courts this summer. Every Open needs a young U.S. media sensation; last year it was CiCi Bellis, this year it could be Tiafoe.

“I haven’t made the final since 2009, actually,” Federer said last week while talking about his Open chances. He sounded a little surprised himself. As well as he has played overall in recent years, it hasn’t translated to Grand Slam success; he’s won just one major since the 2010 Australian Open.

But after beating Djokovic in Cincinnati, it’s obvious that Federer is playing well again, so well that some have deemed him the favorite at the Open. As Federer pointed out, though, New York isn’t Cincy: The balls are slower, the courts are grittier, and the matches are three-out-of-five sets—none of which works to the 34-year-old’s advantage.

Does his draw? That's tough to say. Federer opens against Leonardo Mayer, a player he barely squeaked by, 9-7 in a third-set tiebreaker, in Shanghai last year. In the fourth round, he could play either Ivo Karlovic or John Isner, an unappetizing proposition either way. And in the quarters, Federer is scheduled to face Tomas Berdych, the man who beat him in that round at the Open in 2012. But Berdych, who has had his struggles of late, is hardly a lock to make it that far.

First-round match to watch: Richard Gasquet vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis

Third-round match to contemplate: Isner vs. Karlovic. I’m already grateful for the fifth-set tiebreaker.

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Monfils; Federer d. Murray

Final: Djokovic d. Federer