Opening the Mason (Ohio) Jar

Now that Serena Williams’ latest win streak is over, should the rest of the WTA feel just a little more hopeful this week in Mason, Ohio? Probably not—Serena is still 43-2 on the year. But even if she remains the clear favorite to win the Western & Southern Open, draws don’t come much more loaded than this one. The Top 16 is represented in full.

Aside from her stellar record this season and her 130-odd straight weeks at No. 1, there’s another reason why Serena’s opponents shouldn’t get there hopes up in Cincy. Last year she also lost in the semifinals in Canada (to her sister Venus), before bouncing back to win this tournament and the U.S. Open.

Serena’s draw in 2015 makes a successful rebound look highly manageable. She opens against either Lucie Hradecka or Tsvetana Pironkova, and the three other seeds in her quarter are Ana Ivanovic, Carla Suarez Navarro, and Sara Errani—none of whom are known as Serena-killers, to put it mildly.

Also here: Venus Williams. She’ll play Ivanovic next, and could face her sister in the quarters.

First-round match to watch: Suarez Navarro vs. Sloane Stephens

Petra Kvitova is the top seed here, but that may be in number only. The Czech has reported having mono recently, and she was obviously still in recovery mode during her rapid defeat at the hands of Victoria Azarenka in Toronto. Unless she has markedly improved, Kvitova will have her hands full against either Sabine Lisicki or Caroline Garcia in her opener.

Who in this section might take advantage, if Kvitova is still subpar? Lucie Safarova is the next highest seed, but she has struggled since the spotlight found her at the French Open. Post-Paris, Safarova is just 4-3, with two opening-round losses.

Could it be that the winner of the first-round match between Angelique Kerber and Belinda Bencic will become the favorite to make the semifinals? It makes sense, based on current form: Kerber won in Stanford two weeks ago, and Bencic won in Toronto last week.

Also here: Eugenie Bouchard. She’ll try again to generate some momentum, this time against qualifier Kateryna Bondarenko

First-round match to watch: Kerber vs. Bencic

Second-round match to watch: Safarova vs. CoCo Vandeweghe

Simona Halep says she’s still feeling the various ill effects of her long week in Toronto, but at least she’s put the spring behind her—North American hard courts have been very good to her this year. She’ll start in Cincy against either Kristina Mladenovic or Daniela Hantuchova.

On the other side of this section, Victoria Azarenka has been handed her customary tough draw; she’s scheduled to face fifth seed Caroline Wozniacki in the second round. Though "tough" may be a relative term in this case; Azarenka has won their last four meetings without dropping a set.

We’ve been waiting for what feels like months for Vika to return to the WTA’s upper echelon, but so far Serena has stood resolutely in her way. Last week Azarenka had a chance to do it without facing Serena, but somehow fizzled against Sara Errani. Is this the week Vika succeeds?

Already out: Garbiñe Muguruza. Is a Safarova-like post-Slam-final slump upon her?

Like Roger Federer on the men’s side, the women’s No. 2, Maria Sharapova, will make her first appearance since her semifinal loss to Serena at Wimbledon. She’s certainly had her moments in Cincy in recent years, even if she'd rather forget them. In 2013, she played her only match with coach Jimmy Connors (a three-set loss to Sloane Stephens), and in 2014 she lost to Ana “Check Her Blood Pressure” Ivanovic, 7-5 in the third. We’ll see what transpires when Maria makes her return against either Varvara Lepchenko or Barbora Strycova. Perhaps fireworks will be in store if she plays Aga “Isn’t she back in Poland already?” Radwanska in the third round.

Also here: No. 8 seed Karolina Pliskova

First-round match to watch: Madison Keys vs. No. 12 seed Timea Bacsinszky

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Kerber; Azarenka d. Radwanska

Final: S. Williams d. Azarenka