“Novak didn’t give me much to play with today,” Cilic told the press after his ultra-routine 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 loss to Djokovic this year at Wimbledon. That’s how it’s always been between these two: They've played 13 times, and Djokovic has won them all. Occasionally the matches have been competitive: A five-setter at Wimbledon last year, a close four-setter at the U.S. Open in 2008, and a 6-1 blowout first set for Cilic at Indian Wells in 2014. But mostly they've been routine, and Cilic hasn’t won more than four games in any of their last seven sets. Basically, aside from hitting aces, Djokovic does everything Cilic does but significantly better. His ground strokes are sharper and more varied, and most important, the 6’2” Serb is a much better mover than the 6’6” Croat.
Of course, all of that could have been said before Cilic’s match with Roger Federer in the semis here last year, and it was Cilic who came away the straight-set winner. This year he has shown flashes of the serving prowess that won him the Open title in 2014, but he’ll need more than flashes to take three sets from Djokovic. Winner: Djokovic
Federer has had his way with the competition so far, but he often does through the first four, five, even six rounds at a major. That doesn’t mean he’s going to do the same thing when the competition gets tougher at the end. And if he’s going to win Slam No. 18, he’s probably going to have to go through the toughest competition of all in Wawrinka and Djokovic, the men who eliminated him from the last two majors.
Stan, who knocked Federer out of the French Open in straight sets, is up first. After what I thought was a subpar performance against Donald Young in the fourth round, Wawrinka looked re-energized against Kevin Anderson in the quarters as he raced to beat the rain on Wednesday night. The fact that Wawrinka has finally beaten Federer at a major should work in his favor in two ways: He should have the confidence he can do it again, and Federer won’t be quite so sure of victory even if he comes out of the gates fast and gains an early lead. Still, Federer leads their head-to-head 16-3, and has never lost to Wawrinka on hard courts. Winner: Federer