After a remarkable week-and-a-half in Indian Wells, it all comes down to these two matches in the California desert.
It seemed only a matter of time, once Azarenka recovered from the injuries and the coaching switch that slowed her over the last two years, that she would resume her place just below Serena on the WTA totem pole. In reality, while Vika played some great matches against Serena last year, it has taken more time than I thought—Azarenka came into this tournament still ranked just 15th. But the 2012 Indian Wells champion is back in the final, and she’s back up against Serena, and after the volatility we saw on the WTA tour in February, it feels right. Now all Vika needs to do is find a way to beat the world No. 1: While their last three matches—in Madrid, Paris and at Wimbledon in 2015—were three-set classics, Serena leads their head to head by a whopping 17-3. Azarenka has competed well in this event, but Serena, who hasn’t dropped a set, has been in better form. She wants to write a “different ending” to her Indian Wells story, and when it comes to tennis, she usually gets what she wants.
Winner: Williams
Raonic has come surprisingly far in the first three months of 2016. He has improved virtually every aspect of his game, from his returns to his volleys to his backhand, and appears to have a new level of self-assurance even when things don’t go his way—his demeanor may actually be calmer than it was in the past, if that’s possible. Most impressive of all, this serving machine has made himself into a more watchable player. Now Milos 2.0 faces the ultimate test: Will any of his upgrades matter against Djokovic on Sunday? They’ve played five times and Djokovic has dropped just one set, in Rome on clay two years ago. Raonic talked about that match this week, and said that he had success because, despite the slow surface, he was able to move forward and pressure Djokovic. Look for Raonic to do the same on this slow hard court, and look for him to have some success with it against the world No. 1, who is coming off a hard-fought semifinal win over Rafael Nadal on Saturday. Then look for Djokovic, who is going for a record fifth title in Indian Wells, to win again.
Winner: Djokovic