2016 Miami Open Men's Final Preview

After a remarkable week-and-a-half in Key Biscayne, it all comes down to this match in the Florida sun.

KEY BISCAYNE, Fla.—Kei Nishikori only had 30 minutes or so to bask in the glow of his semifinal win at the Miami Open on Friday before he had to contemplate the Herculean task that lay ahead of him in two days. The reporter who asked about that task didn’t mince words.

“[What is] the most difficult challenge for you with Novak’s game?" the writer asked. "What is the thing you will have to overcome and deal with in order to have a chance against him?”

If that made it sound like Nishikori is trying to climb the tennis version of Mount Everest on Sunday, it's because he kind of is. His opponent, Novak Djokovic, has lost just one time in Miami since 2010, and has won 55 of his last 57 matches at Masters 1000 events. Nishikori, who is trying for his first title at this level—Djokovic is going for a record 28th—was honest about how treacherous the mountain is in front of him.

“I think the biggest thing is that he doesn’t have much weakness,” Nishikori said of Djokovic. “He’s very patient. He doesn’t give you any free points. So [I] also have to focus almost every point if I want to beat him ... And he’s been serving well, I think. So, yeah, [I] have to return well, serve and everything [has] to be there to beat him.”

That about covers it, I’d say: Do everything perfectly and you have a chance.

As difficult as it may sound, Nishikori has put it all together against the world No. 1 before, most recently and relevantly when he beat him in four sets in the 2014 U.S. Open semifinals. So he knows it’s not impossible. Nishikori also happens to be coming off one of the best matches of his season, a consistently aggressive takedown of Nick Kyrgios in the semifinals. Nishikori hasn't been in this position many times before, but it's no fluke; he was more than due to reach another Masters final. He’s also due to win one—against just about any opponent other than this one.

Djokovic seems to have taken his loss to Nishikori at the Open rather personally. He’s 5-0 against Kei since, and he’s won the last five sets they’ve played by scores of 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4. Their last match came two months ago at the Australian Open, on a medium-speed hard court not unlike the one in Miami, and Djokovic administered a comprehensive backcourt beating. My main takeaway at the time was that while Nishikori could attack as well as Djokovic, and even get the better of the backhand rallies, he was unable or unwilling to defend the court to the extent that Djokovic was, and always is.

The temperature in Miami on Sunday is supposed to be cooler than it has been over the last week. But I could still see the final playing out like the full-boil semifinal between Djokovic and David Goffin. In some ways, Nishikori is a souped-up, superior version of Goffin, and like the Belgian he should be able to create his opportunities from the baseline. Nishikori may have even been thinking of Goffin, and his ill-fated overhead shank at 4-4 in the first-set tiebreaker against Djokovic, when he said that he has to focus on every point to have a chance of winning.

Kei could win. He has the shots, and Djokovic hasn’t been at his towering best in Miami.  But that may be the worst news of all for Nishikori: Even with his B game, Djokovic hasn’t lost a set.

Winner: Djokovic