Super Saturday in Spain

Previewing the women's final, and men's semis, at the Mutua Madrid Open.

Let's not sugarcoat it: This hasn’t been a week to remember for the WTA. First Serena Williams dropped out, then Victoria Azarenka dropped out, then everyone else lost, then both of Saturday’s semis were duds. The tour probably can’t wait to move on to Rome, where, hopefully, Serena and Vika will be waiting. But first there’s a Madrid final to play.

To be fair, it can’t be said that everyone lost: One woman in the Top 16, Halep, did manage to reach the quarterfinals. Now she’s in the final, and while she beat just one other seeded player, Timea Bacsinszky, to get there, this could be an important week for the Romanian. Historically, Halep has had her slumps, but she’s always come out of them. A title here would inject her back into the French Open conversation. The last time she made the final in Madrid, she made the final in Paris, too.

But going one step farther at the Caja Magica won’t be easy. Cibulkova likes playing Halep; she's won three of their four previous meetings, and the last time they played, at the 2014 Australian Open, the Slovakian stomped on her, 6-3, 6-0. Halep did win their only encounter on clay, in 2012, but even then Cibulkova took the first set at love. Domi, who has won three three-setters this week, is battle-tested at the moment, and she ran through Louisa Chirico in the semifinals 6-1, 6-1. As with Halep, a title here could have ramifications down the road for Cibulkova; she reached the semis at Roland Garros in 2009 and the quarters in 2012.

So a seemingly lost week on the women’s side has produced a potentially redeeming and entertaining final. Halep is the better player, but Cibulkova can be tough to stop when she gets stomping.

Winner: Cibulkova

These two have typically shown a high level of respect toward each other in the past, but did we detect a note or two of annoyance from the Murray end of the court the last time they played, three weeks ago in Monte Carlo?

“There were a few things that happened in the match,” Murray said afterward. “Obviously towards the end, he got the time violation for obviously taking too long in that last game. There were a few things during the match. You guys were watching. And yeah, you can draw your own conclusions from it.”

Murray, who had just suffered a tough defeat at the hands of Rafa, sounded much like he had after suffering tough defeats at the hands of Novak Djokovic last year. In both cases, Murray, without directly accusing his opponents, had implied that they had distracted him in some way; Djokovic by dramatizing an injury, Nadal by taking too much time and calling the trainer at an inopportune moment.

If Murray’s sense of grievance continues in this semifinal, it will add some spice to the proceedings, but it will also likely not work to his advantage. The less he worries about what Rafa’s doing, about things he can’t control on the other side of the net, the better off he’ll be.

As for the match itself, it shouldn’t need any extra drama; the lengthy but varied rallies should provide plenty. Nadal is 7-1 against Murray on clay, but Murray's one win came in last year’s Madrid final, when Murray dispatched the hometown favorite with ease, 6-3, 6-2. Nadal is obviously a much better and more confident player now, but he hasn’t been without his shaky moments so far this week. He went down 1-4 in the first set to Sam Querrey in the third round, and today lost the second set to Joao Sousa, 6-4, after bageling him in the first.

Both of those matches offer possible templates for a Murray-Nadal semi. Often, Andy has had his way early against Rafa—then a crucial shot goes against him, and the wind goes out of his sails. It’s as if Murray, not quite believing he can beat Rafa when he walks on court, waits for something—an easy putaway miss, a double fault at the wrong time, an unbelievable get by Nadal—to prove him right.

Murray has played well so far in Madrid, and picked up the pace on his serve. Maybe the memories of last year, when Nadal was too far off his game to make a run at him, will give him a boost when he needs it. But Rafa, who has won 13 straight matches, is in the habit of staging comebacks again, and Murray knows it.

Winner: Nadal

What a difference a couple weeks off makes for the world No. 1, eh? After winning in Indian Wells and Miami and losing early in Monte Carlo, Djokovic said he needed a rest, and so far in Madrid the evidence has backed him up. He has been at his best in his three matches there, beating three quality opponents, Borna Coric, Roberto Bautista Agut and Milos Raonic, without dropping a set. Djokovic has returned brilliantly, dominated from the baseline, and, until the last few testy games of his quarterfinal against Raonic, looked fully composed. Most impressive has been the way Djokovic has adapted his game to clay; he’s putting more air under his shots without sacrificing any of their usual penetration.

Does Nishikori stand a chance against all of that? Not if you go by their head to head, which Djokovic leads 7-2; or the result of their last meeting, in Miami, where Djokovic never really found his A-game, yet still won in ultra-routine fashion, 6-3, 6-3. Nishikori obviously likes the quicker conditions in Madrid—for the third straight year, he’s reached at least the semifinals there. But his offense-first style still isn’t a natural fit for clay. On any surface, Djokovic's offense-first and defense-first style is the one to bet on.

Winner: Djokovic