2016 Rogers Cup: Previewing the men's and women's finals

This was the women’s final that I forecast in my tournament preview last weekend. With Serena, Maria and Vika out for various reasons, it seemed like an ideal week for Halep, a finalist in Canada last year, to find her game on her favorite North American hard courts, and for Keys to have a big result at a U.S. Open Series event. Each looked strong out of the gate, and while they dropped a couple of sets along the way, each finished strong in her semifinal. Halep was the more dynamic player against Angelique Kerber, and ran away with the third set; a few hours later, Keys put a start-to-finish beatdown on Kristina Kucova, 6-2, 6-0, in 50 minutes.

Halep is 2-1 against Keys, and she won their fourth-round match at Wimbledon earlier this month in three sets. With her higher margin for error and better defense, she’s the safer pick to win this one as well. She also survived a lull in the second set of her match against Kerber; that should make it easier for her to bounce back if it happens again in the final. Still, after watching Keys power her way through the third set of her quarterfinal against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova—and the two sets of her semi against Kucova—it’s tempting to believe the 21-year-old is in the middle of a breakthrough run. We know about Keys’ forehand, but this week her backhand has been almost as lethal; she’s found a new, winning crosscourt angle with it, and she seems to like it. But I picked Halep at the start of the tournament, so I’ll stick with that safer choice now.

Winner: Halep

When the week began in Toronto, this felt like a relatively low-stakes Masters 1000. Now, while no one is going to mistake it for a major final on Sunday, both of these guys have a lot to gain with a victory.

Djokovic obviously doesn’t need this title. But after his strange, early loss at Wimbledon, and his strangely poor play in his quarterfinal against Tomas Berdych here, a win would stamp out any tiny doubts that may be creeping into his head, and any tiny hopes that may be creeping into his opponents’ heads. Djokovic righted the ship against Gael Monfils in the semis, but his serve is still a question mark. He’ll need it to be better against Nishikori’s return, and he’ll definitely want it to be better next week at the Olympics in Rio.

If anything, though, the stakes are higher for Nishikori. At 36-11, he’s had a solid season on all surfaces. He has reached the final at one Masters 1000 (Miami) and the semis at two others (Madrid, Rome). Four of his losses this season have come at the hands of Djokovic; in the first three, Djokovic won routine straight-setters, but their last match, in the Rome semis, was a thriller that was decided in a third-set tiebreaker. Can Kei finally rise to the occasion at a top-level event? At 26, with 11 titles to his name, he’s long overdue to win his first Masters 1000. The courts in Toronto are quick enough to let him do it, but Djokovic is quick enough to stop him.

Winner: Djokovic