Rogers Cup Men's Preview: Room at the Top

After this year’s French Open, many of us wondered if the era of the Big Four had officially given way to the era of the Only One—the one being, of course, Novak Djokovic. Those thoughts were quickly tossed aside when Andy Murray took advantage of a rare Djokovic stumble to win Wimbledon.

Now those thoughts have returned, in a much more literal sense, at the Rogers Cup. Djokovic really is the only one of the Big Four to make the trip to Toronto. With the Rio Olympics on the immediate horizon, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Murray have all passed on the year’s first top-level U.S. Open tune-up event.

What will this novel situation bring us? Will the star power we’ve come to expect at a Masters 1000 tournament be conspicuously lacking? Will it be a refreshing showcase for the ATP’s second tier of (often-neglected) talent? Or will it provide a reassuring glimpse of what the tour’s future may hold? Here’s a look ahead at the draw.

The last time we saw Djokovic, at Wimbledon, he was looking mentally—and possibly physically—burned out. A week later, he was absent for a Serbian Davis Cup tie. Now that he has arrived in Toronto, the next question is: How much will he want to invest in this tournament? He reached the final last year, and is defending those points, but more important to him will be what happens two weeks from now in Rio. Djokovic has the career Grand Slam, but he's still missing an Olympic gold medal.

Djokovic has had his ups and downs in Toronto. He won the tournament there in 2012, but two years later he started a strangely subdued summer by losing in the third round, 6-2, 6-2, to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. This time, Djokovic will open against either Dmitry Tursunov or Gilles Muller—the latter lefty is 36, but he has pulled his share of upsets in the past. Also in this section are Tomas Berdych, John Isner and Borna Coric. Of those players, Isner, a lover of North American hard courts who isn’t going to Rio, would seem to pose a danger.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

The loss of the Big Four in Toronto is Milos Raonic’s gain: The Wimbledon finalist has bounced all the way up to No. 4 in the seedings. Raonic, who is skipping the Olympics, has played well in his home country in the past; he was a finalist in 2013 in Montreal, and a quarterfinalist in Toronto in 2014. This week would seem to be the perfect opportunity for him to build on his breakthrough trip to the Wimbledon final. But he'll have to earn it: Raonic could face German hot shot Alexander Zverev in his opener.

Also here:

No. 7 seed David Goffin. The Belgian led Raonic two sets to love in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.

No. 10 seed Gael Monfils. On Sunday, a month shy of his 30th birthday, the Frenchman won the biggest title of his career at the Citi Open in Washington, D.C.

Sam Querrey. Will his win over Djokovic at Wimbledon make any difference to his career in the long run? We’ll get any early answer here.

Semifinalist: Raonic

Like Raonic, Kei Nishikori finds himself in rarefied air this week as the No. 3 seed. But that doesn’t change the fundamental question that always surrounds him: Can he last long enough, physically, to take advantage of the vacuum at the top? The odds are never good. Nishikori was forced to retire with a rib injury at Wimbledon earlier this month, and at last year’s Rogers Cup in Montreal he beat Nadal in the quarters, only to pull up lame in the semis and lose a bagel second set to Murray.

Marin Cilic is the top seed in the other half here. If nothing else, the low-key Croat has been making news of late. He lost a couple of five-set heartbreakers, to Federer at Wimbledon and Jack Sock in Davis Cup. That seemed to be too much for his coach, Goran Ivanisevic, to handle; the two announced they were parting ways last week. But Cilic also bounced back to save Croatia in that Cup tie in Portland, and his tennis at Wimbledon was his best in two years.

Also here: Nick Kyrgios, Lucas Pouille

First-round match (for U.S. fans) to watch: Taylor Fritz vs. Ivo Karlovic

Semifinalist: Nishikori

What is it with Stan Wawrinka and the hard courts of North America? You might think, looking at his strong serve and stronger baseline game, that they would get along famously. But they don’t. Wawrinka’s second- and fourth-round losses in Miami and Indian Wells, respectively, this spring were the latest in long series of disappointing, momentum-stopping results for him on this continent. Will the story be the same this week? On paper, Wawrinka has a manageable draw—Sock is the first seed he could face—but with the Olympics coming up next week, he’s a risky bet again.

Also here: Dominic Thiem. You might have thought his early loss at Wimbledon would have inspired the Austrian to adjust his schedule and play a little less. But that’s not how the ATP’s Energizer Bunny has rolled so far. Rather than get an early jump on the hard-court season last week, Thiem instead played on clay in Kitzbuhel, where he lost his opener to 35-year-old, 421st-ranked Jurgen Melzer. That doesn’t bode so well for Toronto.

Semifinalist: Wawrinka

Semifinals: Raonic d. Djokovic; Nishikori d. Wawrinka

Final: Raonic d. Nishikori