Karolina Pliskova ends Serena Williams’ reign at No. 1 in U.S. Open semifinals: Three thoughts

NEW YORK—Karolina Pliskova’s 6-2, 7-6 (5) upset of Serena Williams means the American’s reign atop the WTA rankings will come to an end after three and a half years, and the Czech’s white-hot run will continue into her first Grand Slam singles final. Three thoughts from the stunning semifinal:

1. Pliskova acts like she’s been there before.

If I had asked you before the match which player would convert 20 of her first 22 first-serve points, the answer wouldn’t just have been obvious; the question would have been insulting. Only someone who possesses the serving prowess of Williams could record such numbers. Yet it was Pliskova, playing in her maiden Grand Slam semi, who dominated from the stripe, winning 84 percent of her first-serve points on the evening. The 24-year-old Czech has been lauded for her pancake-flat ground strokes, and she brings it on serve as well. When Williams finishes a match having converted 100 percent of her break chances, that usually bodes ill for her opponent. Except when the opponent offers her just one.

After sprinting through the first set in a paltry 26 minutes, Pliskova was bound to come back to earth, but she never trailed Williams at any point. Williams began reducing her errors on the ground and had the crowd entirely on her side, but Pliskova, after an exchange of breaks, produced pressure-packed holds at 3-4, 4-5 and 5-6. When she lost four straight points after leading the tiebreaker 3-0, I—and surely you—thought that this was finally the moment we’d been expecting: for Pliskova to wilt, and for Williams to rise.

It may have happened, had Pliskova not hit the shot of the match at 5-5 in the tense tiebreaker. A Pliskova second serve gave Williams the room and opportunity to run around her backhand and wallop a forehand strike. Williams connected on her crosscourt swat, but Pliskova’s block reflex return reset the terms of the point, which the world No. 1 would go on to lose. A point later, Williams was eliminated from the U.S. Open. She briskly walked to the locker room in defeat.

“She’s going full power into my second serve,” Pliskova said on court after her giant upset. “I still think, today, the serve is the reason I win.”

2. A difficult start, and a streaking opponent, gave Williams no room for error.

Williams won the first game of the match at love, landing all four of her first serves in play. Six games later, Williams lost a service game at love with a double fault and three unforced errors. Her play, so high at points in this tournament, descended quickly against a zoning opponent at the worst possible time. Pliskova came into Flushing Meadows off a title run in Cincinnati which included wins over Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza.

“I had a goal today, [and] that’s what I did,” Pliskova said in a rapid-fire response after defeating Williams.

Williams’ lost opportunity may have come early in the second set, when she reached 30-40 on Pliskova’s serve while leading 2-1. The American approached the net in order to seal the point with a volley. She didn’t have to contend with a hard-hit Pliskova shot, but the height of the ball required Williams to kneel slightly. It was just enough for her to botch what should have been a 3-1 lead, which may have given Pliskova more to think about. But given the No. 10 seed’s play later on, it may not have made a difference.

3. Serena loses No. 1 ranking; Pliskova nears first major title.

The night couldn’t have started better for Kerber, who has now clinched the No. 1 ranking with Williams’ loss. We’ll see how it finishes, as she faces Caroline Wozniacki for a spot in the final. [It turned out well; Kerber advanced to her first career final at Flushing Meadows.]

Pliskova was asked if she had any preference as to who she might play for the title on Saturday afternoon.

“No, not really,” she said, a typical answer to an even more typical question.

But another sound bite from Pliskova was more telling.

“I don’t believe it,” she started. “Actually, I do believe it.”

I couldn’t have said it better myself.