Win or Go Home: Kuznetsova, Suarez Navarro can extend season in Moscow

With or without Serena Williams’ participation, next week's WTA Finals are what most tennis fans had on the mind at this week began. But the world No. 2’s withdrawal from the season-ending championships has raised the stakes of this final week of WTA regular-season play.

Williams’ omission freed up one last spot in the elite eight that will compete in Singapore. For now, that spot is occupied by Johanna Konta, the 25-year-old Brit who’s having a career year.

But Konta must sit and wait—which she’s doing anyway, with an abdominal strain—to discover her fate. It will be determined in Moscow, home of the longstanding Kremlin Cup, by Svetlana Kuznetsova and Carla Suarez Navarro. They have exactly one path towards the WTA Finals: victory. Anything less than a title means that Konta earns conveyance to Singapore.

No pressure, ladies.

The Associated Press summed up the situation thusly:

Kuznetsova is already assured of her best year-end ranking since 2009 and is aiming to defend her Moscow title in front of a home crowd.

''If I can win the tournament it would be wonderful, great, and everything I'm wishing for, but I don't want to look that far ahead,'' she said.

Both Kuznetsova and Suarez Navarro have first-round byes in Moscow. The Russian will start Wednesday against either France's Alize Cornet or Shelby Rogers of the U.S., while Suarez Navarro faces a tricky match against either Lucie Safarova of the Czech Republic or Russian-born Australian Daria Gavrilova.

Dominika Cibulkova, who qualified for the WTA Finals last week with her title in Linz, was a late withdrawal from Moscow, which meant that Kuznetsova and Suarez Navarro became the tournament’s top two seeds. They could meet in the final for a trophy, a place in the season-ending championships and to split the 3-3 tie in their career meetings.

Win and you’re in: It’s a scenario we see every day in tennis, as progression to the next round of a tournament requires victory in the round that preceded it. But from a big-picture perspective, where victory means something greater, it’s relatively uncommon. The incremental, points-based measurement of ranking in tennis means that achievements don’t often filter toward a winner-take-all match. How often have we read about the need for Player X to reach “at least the quarterfinal round” to maintain their ranking, or for Player Y to “win two rounds” to clinch a spot in the season-ending championships? Quite often, I feel.

But not this week, where two players need a title, and only a title, to move on. It’s what a year-end race should be.