ATP World Tour Finals Preview: Murray, Nole duel for No. 1 in London

You can’t have everything.

The ATP’s season-ending World Tour Finals is known for its star power: Only the best will do in London, and that typically includes every marquee name in the men’s game. That’s not quite as true in 2016; this edition of the WTF won’t feature the two biggest fan favorites of the last decade, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. While the tournament’s newcomers, Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem, are terrific performers, they aren’t going to fill Rafa and Roger’s shoes any time soon.

What the WTF isn’t known for is a dramatic season-ending showdown for the No. 1 position. Usually, one player—i.e. either Roger, Rafa or Novak Djokovic—already has the top spot locked up, or is on the verge of locking it up. This time, things are different in that regard as well. This time, we’ll have a real, live, day-to-day duel for No. 1 between Djokovic and Andy Murray.

You can’t have everything, but we’ve got a good thing to watch next week. Here’s a look ahead at what Murray and Djokovic will face in their respective groups.

Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Marin Cilic

Becoming No. 1, and playing at home, clearly hasn’t earned Murray any special favors. His group is much more perilous than Djokovic’s. The Scot leads the Serb by a narrow 405 points in the year-end race, but Djokovic can overtake him if he goes farther in London. Murray has his work cut out for him.

With this competition, it won’t be enough for Murray simply to play his normal game and expect to cruise into the semifinals. He’ll need something close to his best, at a tournament where he hasn’t always mustered it. The last time Murray advanced out of his group was 2012, and he has felt the pressure of playing in the city where he lives.  Murray says his first goal, before he can think of the No. 1 ranking, is simply to find a way to play well in The O2 Arena.

The early word is that the court there is playing more quickly than in the past; that may make life a little tougher for the defensive-minded Murray. He’ll definitely need to be sharp against all three of his round-robin opponents, each of whom has beaten Murray on multiple occasions.

Murray played one of the most brilliant matches of his career to beat Wawrinka at the French Open this year, but that was partly a product of necessity; Stan had won their previous three meetings, including one at The O2 last year. Wawrinka tends to thrive against top-level competition, and has made the semis in London the last three years. As for Nishikori, Murray leads their head to head 7-2, but Nishikori won their last match, at the U.S. Open; a quick court should also favor Kei’s first-strike baseline game. Finally, while Murray leads Cilic 11-3, the Croat won their most recent meeting, in Cincinnati in August, and has been playing some of the best tennis of his career.

To finish 2016 at the top, Murray will have to do better at this difficult event than he ever has before. But rising to those challenges is what No. 1 players are supposed to do. And it would be a fitting end to a career year.

Semifinalists: Murray, Wawrinka

Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, Dominic Thiem

Djokovic has been in a funk of late, but I’m guessing that a smile crept across his face when the WTF groups were announced. While Murray’s record against his opposition is 25-12, Djokovic’s record against his is ... 23-0. And precious few of those 23 matches have been close: Thiem has never taken a set from him, while Raonic has won just one in their seven meetings. Maybe life at No. 2 isn’t so bad?

Even in Djokovic’s burned-out state, it would be stunning if he didn’t make the semifinals. Not only is he undefeated against his group, but he’s also the four-time defending champion in London. The questions will likely come later, if and when he does reach the semis, and if and when he faces Murray and Wawrinka.

How much will Djokovic want to avenge his loss to Stan at the Open and retake his ranking from Murray? Now that he gets to be the hunter, rather than the hunted, will Djokovic be loosened up and re-energized? History says it’s possible. In 2013, after Nadal took the No. 1 ranking from him at the U.S. Open, Djokovic tore through the fall and finished the year by beating Rafa in the final at The O2. He still finished No. 2, but he set himself up to take the top spot back in 2014. Also, in case anyone has forgotten, Djokovic has won five of his last six matches against Murray. Still, I think it will be difficult for Djokovic to turn his game around on a dime this year. I think he needs a break from the tour first.

Who might follow Djokovic into the semis from this group? It’s anybody’s guess. Raonic has been hobbled by an ankle injury, and Thiem and Monfils are making their World Tour Finals debuts. The latter two are true wild cards: Both could light up The O2 with their shot-making, or they could fizzle with nerves. And how will La Monf handle the round-robin format, where he’ll be able to lose a match and still advance? It should be fun finding out.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Monfils

Semifinals: Murray d. Monfils; Wawrinka d. Djokovic

Final: Murray d. Wawrinka