ATP Finals Preview, Day 6: Murray vs. Wawrinka, Nishikori vs. Cilic

Murray has won 21 straight matches, but this will be the toughest test he has faced since that streak began. While his record against Wawrinka is 9-7, Stan has won three of their last four meetings. Even when Murray turned the tables in the French Open semifinals this spring, he had to come up with one of the best performances of his career to do it. This time Murray and Wawrinka will begin in slightly different positions; Murray needs to win one set to clinch a spot in the semifinals, while Wawrinka—who lost his opener to Kei Nishikori—needs all the games, sets and matches he can get. But that doesn’t mean Murray won’t want to win as well; if he doesn’t finish first in his group, he’ll have to face Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. As far as their form goes, Murray has been surviving, while Wawrinka has been improving. In his two-tiebreaker win over Marin Cilic on Wednesday, Wawrinka seemed to revert to the gritty, vocal, refuse-to-lose mode that served him so well at the U.S. Open. When Stan is feeling that way, it’s tough for anyone, even a world No. 1, to beat him.

Winner: Wawrinka

The most important question here: How motivated will Cilic be? After losing his first two matches in straight sets, he has no chance of reaching the semifinals. Nishikori, on the other hand, will want to win and win big; every set and game could end up counting in his race with Murray and Wawrinka to the semis. Cilic won his latest meeting against Nishikori, in the Basel final last month, but Nishikori leads their head to head 7-5. He has also been in better form so far in London, and no matter how much Cilic would like to be the spoiler, Nishikori has more to play for in this one.

Winner: Nishikori