ATP Finals Preview, Day 4: Murray vs. Nishikori, Wawrinka vs. Cilic

This has the potential to be the best and most tense match of the group stage. Murray and Nishikori each won their first match in straight sets, and each wants to finish first in their group to avoid having to face Novak Djokovic in the semifinals this weekend. Murray will come in as the favorite; he’s 7-2 against Nishikori and is riding a 22-match win streak. In fact, the last man to beat him at a tour event was Nishikori, at the U.S. Open. The O2’s semi-slick surface may favor Kei’s attacking game, and Murray is usually wound a little more tightly than normal at his home-court event. Despite all of those positive signs for Nishikori, though, history favors Murray. In big matches, just when you think he’s about to make a breakthrough, Nishikori has tended to come up short. Murray, by contrast, didn’t get to No. 1 by losing these kinds of encounters.

Winner: Murray

The afternoon session pits the first-match winners against each other; in the evening, the losers do battle. The good news for Wawrinka and Cilic is that things can’t get much worse than they did on Monday. Wawrinka stumbled out of the gate against Nishikori and never recovered, while Cilic started strong but faded fast against Murray. The bad news for Cilic is that Wawrinka owns him. Stan leads their head to head 10-2, and hasn’t lost to the Croat since 2010. Wawrinka started sluggishly at the U.S. Open this year, and we all know where he ended up.

Winner: Wawrinka