2017 Season Preview: ATP No. 3 Milos Raonic

Over the first 10 days of 2017, we're examining the Top 10 players on the ATP and WTA tours—how will they fare during the new season? All of the previews can be found here.

What was the biggest surprise on the men’s side in 2016? Andy Murray’s rise to No. 1? Roger Federer’s injury-plagued season? Many of us would choose Milos Raonic’s ascension to No. 3 in the rankings. Just seeing the 25-year-old Canadian’s name in a spot normally reserved for the Big Four was a bit of a shock. Did he really belong there? More important, was it a signal that the ATP’s long-awaited, and long-dreaded, generational shift was finally upon us?

Raonic, of course, would say yes to both questions. Few players are as good at projecting an air of inevitability about their rise up the rankings as Raonic. Through his many tough losses and injury setbacks, he has remained calmly focused on the long view. No defeat seems to shake his self-belief that he will win Grand Slams one day. More than anything else about his game, it’s that discipline and sense of purpose that might make him a major champion.

What are the chances it happens in 2017? In part, Raonic is steadily moving closer to the top by process of elimination. Last year Federer, at 34, dropped out of the Top 10, and Nadal, at 30, was left barely hanging on at No. 9. Another thirtysomething, Stan Wawrinka, continues to be a threat, but never an odds-on favorite to win any event. And while the next generation, led by Dominic Thiem, Nick Kyrgios and Alexander Zverev, has established itself, Raonic remains ahead of them in the pecking order so far.

But Raonic has also improved. Last year, he worked hard on his return and net game in the offseason, and he stunned most observers at the Australian Open with his newfound volleying prowess and racquet control. It was enough to take him to his first semifinal in Melbourne, where he led Murray two sets to one before injuring his leg. Five months later, Raonic went one step farther when he made his first major final, at Wimbledon. That time, in mounting five-set comebacks against David Goffin and Federer, he showed off a newfound swagger on the big stage. Finally, Raonic closed the season the way he started it, with a surge at the World Tour Finals in London, where he reached the semifinals for the first time and held a match point on Murray.

Like a self-fulfilling prophecy, Raonic’s climb continues, despite his obvious deficiencies as a player. So far he has been unlucky to have followed in the Big Four’s footsteps, but he knows that good things come to those who wait long enough. Is this the year that Raonic’s patience pays dividends? Or will the next generation pass him by just as he’s ready to cross the finish line?