Before each day of play at the Australian Open, we'll preview and predict three must-see matches. For full coverage of the season's first Slam, go to our men’s and women’s tournament pages.
As I wrote in my recap of Federer’s third-round win over Tomas Berdych, recent Aussie Open history says he’ll beat Nishikori, too. Since 2011, once Federer gets on a roll Down Under, only a fellow member of the Big Four can stop him (which they inevitably do in the semis). Federer has won his last three meetings against Nishikori, and for all of Kei’s speed and shot-making skills, he hasn’t taken the final step up the ladder and made himself a consistent threat at the majors. He says that’s his goal for 2017, but I don’t think he has it in him to stop the Federer express—on this quick court, in front of these partisan fans—now that it’s out of the station.
Winner: Federer
Depending on what the tennis gods decide, this match could be an entertaining contrast in styles, a blowout, or both. Now that Kerber has settled into the tournament, we can be pretty sure of what we’re going to get from her: a lot of balls back, a lot of angles, a lot of scrapping and battling. The question is what Vandeweghe will bring to the court. It could be, as it was when things were going well in her third-round win over Eugenie Bouchard, a barrage of big serves and blistering high-risk winners. Or it could be, as it was when things weren’t going well in that match, a barrage of head-scratching high-risk errors. CoCo will get her cuts in against Kerber, but how often will she connect? Their only completed match, in Stanford in 2014, was predictably unpredictable: Kerber won in three, but not before Vandeweghe bageled her in the second set. That sounds about right.
Winner: Kerber