Aussie Open Semis Preview: All-Williams final? Stan, Federer do battle

Before each day of play at the Australian Open, we'll preview and predict three must-see matches. For full coverage of the season's first Slam, go to our men’s and women’s tournament pages.

One woman is playing in her first Australian Open semifinal in 14 years, and the other is playing in her first Grand Slam semi, period. Williams may have forgotten precisely what it feels like to be in this situation Down Under, but that still gives her the edge, experience-wise, on Vandeweghe. Can CoCo make up for it with youthful energy and bravado? It’s definitely possible: Before the tournament began, who would have believed that the unseeded, 25-year-old Californian would lose just nine games combined to world No. 1 Angelique Kerber and French Open champion Garbiñe Muguruza? Venus and Vandeweghe have played just once, on clay in Rome last year, and Williams came away the winner in straight sets. Obviously, these quickened hard courts in Melbourne are more to CoCo’s liking, and if she can keep moving and playing the way she has—or even at 85 percent of the way she has—she’s probably going to win. But there’s also reason to think she won’t be swinging quite as freely and easily this time. The semis at a Slam are a step up from the quarters in terms of pressure, and for an American, playing Venus Williams is, too.

Winner: V. Williams

The 35-year-old American and the 34-year-old Croatian have played twice. But the results—Serena won both times—may not be all that relevant, considering that they happened all the way back in the 20th century. In those days, both teens would likely have cracked up if you had told them they would be facing off again in a Grand Slam semi in 2017—the number itself would have sounded bizarre. Serena’s trip to the semis was expected, but even for her, she has looked good. Each time she has been alerted to a threat—from Belinda Bencic in the first round to Johanna Konta in the quarterfinals—Serena has tightened up her game and rolled to an efficient win. While the road for the 79th-ranked Lucic-Baroni has been more surprising, it has been just as impressive. She took out the two top seeds in her quarter, Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova. Lucic-Baroni’s run, after personal turmoil and years spent on the sidelines, has also been one of the stories of the tournament. While she has the serve, the stature and the power to stay with Serena, her story will probably end here. It won't be easy for either player to bounce back with no rest, but Lucic-Baroni had a much more taxing quarterfinal.

Winner: S. Williams

Wawrinka has beaten Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in Grand Slam finals, but this may be his biggest test of all: ending his friend and countryman’s late-career dream run to an 18th major title. It won’t be easy. Federer is 18-3 against Wawrinka—including 13-0 on hard courts and 5-1 at the Slams. The last of those meetings came in the U.S. Open semis in 2015, and all Federer had to do was throw in a couple of SABR moves early and watch Wawrinka implode—the final score was 6-4, 6-3, 6-1. Since then, of course, Wawrinka has won the Open. Couple that with Federer’s six-month layoff, and Stan should feel like he’s at least on even terms. As far as their form goes, there’s not much difference between them; Federer has beaten Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori, while Wawrinka has knocked off Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and survived a five-set scare in the first round against Martin Klizan. Federer will be boosted by quicker Melbourne hard courts and a partisan night crowd in Rod Laver Arena. But in recent years, when he has faced a fellow member of the Big Four in the semis here, the wind has come out of his sails. Since 2011, he’s lost twice to Djokovic in this round, twice to Nadal and once to Murray. Is Wawrinka worthy of the Big Four? This match might finally give us the answer.

Winner: Wawrinka