So the seemingly impossible has happened: Eight years after their last major final, at ages 36 and 35, respectively, Venus and Serena Williams will meet in the Australian Open title match. Two weeks ago, it may have been hard to imagine that this is how the tournament would end; Venus hasn’t reached the final Down Under in 14 years. But Rod Laver Arena is a fitting place for the Williams sisters to stage a last hurrah—or a late hurrah, anyway. This is the court where they played their first professional match against each other, in 1998.

Venus won that second-rounder in straight sets, but a lot, obviously, has occurred in the intervening 19 years. Serena long ago passed Venus in their head to head, and she currently leads it 16-11. Unlike the rest of her competition, though, Serena has never left her older sister behind. How could she? Not only are their matches psychologically painful, but Venus knows Serena’s game like no one else, and can still run down her shots like almost no one else. Since 2008, a pattern has developed between them: Serena wins two matches, and Venus wins one. If that holds true again, Venus should be the favorite here, because Serena has won their last two meetings. The most recent of them, in the 2015 U.S. Open quarterfinals, was a three-setter. Venus wasn’t far off that night in Arthur Ashe Stadium.

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Can the 17th-ranked Venus—who is still the underdog—take it a step farther and win her first Aussie Open, and first major in nine years? I liked the way she played her semifinal against CoCo Vandeweghe. Venus took Vandeweghe’s best punches, adjusted to her pace and got better as the match went on. Instead of growing anxious at the end, which she has been known to do, she used her serve and forehand to shut the door. It’s never easy for Venus to face her sister, but she should start this match swinging freely and feeling like she has nothing to lose.

The opposite may be true for Serena in the early going. She’s the favorite, she’s playing her least favorite opponent, and she wants to get major title No. 23 and put Steffi Graf behind her on the all-time list. Yet what might make her nervous to start might also motivate her to loosen up later. Serena hasn’t dropped a set in Melbourne, and each time a possible threat has appeared—Belinda Bencic in the first round, Johanna Konta in the quarters—she has upped her focus and efficiency. Serena also dominated her semifinal against Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. The last time she won a Slam, at Wimbledon last summer, she dominated her semi against Elena Vesnina and edged Angelique Kerber in the final two days later. It could go the same way in Australia if Serena plays as well as she has throughout this fortnight. If she gets a little tight, though, it could go the other way, too.

Winner: Venus Williams