Indian Wells Men's Preview: Who will survive the Group of Death?

Every World Cup must include a so-called Group of Death, whether or not one actually warrants the name. This year’s Indian Wells men’s draw shows that tennis can hold its own in that department. As you’ve probably heard, the bottom quarter here is a corker: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Juan Martin del Potro, Nick Kyrgios and Alexander Zverev will all compete for one semifinal spot.

It’s an exciting development for fans; the bottom quarter alone would make for one of the season’s most action-packed events. But it’s hardly what new tournament director Tommy Haas and his fellow Indian Wells officials would have hoped for: Come next weekend, only one of these marquee names will still be on the marquee. Let’s take a look at who might take their places.

Luckily for him, Andy Murray is the odd man out in this draw. He’s all alone in the top half, and will be happy to watch his biggest rivals knock themselves out over the course of the next week. Murray is coming off a confidence-boosting title in Dubai, and his quarter is, relatively speaking, an ordinary one: No. 7 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the next highest seed, and while Jo has been hot of late—he won back-to-back titles in Rotterdam and Marseille—he has never been past the quarters in Indian Wells. Murray has been to a final there, but never won the title; he has to like his chances right now.

Also in this section: David Goffin, Frances Tiafoe, Reilly Opelka, Ryan Harrison

First-round match to watch: 20-year-old Karen Khachanov vs. 34-year-old Tommy Robredo. The young Russian has been learning his share of lessons so far in 2017; this might be another.

Semifinalist: Murray

With all of that star power huddled below, the middle quarters of this draw are a little thin on name brands: Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem are the top two seeds in this section, followed by Gael Monfils, Tomas Berdych, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Mischa Zverev, who sneaks in at No. 29.

This is typically the time of year when Wawrinka fades into the background; he’s never done much during the U.S. spring hard-court season, and his first-round loss in Dubai last week wasn’t a good omen. As for Thiem, he should be happy that the schedule has given him a few days off, after his month-long sprint from Europe to South America and now to the States. Theoretically, though, both Wawrinka and Thiem have manageable draws to the quarters.

Semifinalist: Monfils

Opportunities would seem to abound in this section. Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic are the top two seeds here, but the real interest may come from the inside brackets. Sam Querrey, Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock have all won titles, and played impressively, so far in 2017. Which one is ready to keep it going? At the moment, Querrey, who beat Kyrgios and Nadal for the Acapulco title last week, would seem to be the most dangerous.

Also in this section: Lucas Pouille, Borna Coric

First-round matches to watch: Dustin Brown vs. Dan Evans; Benoit Paire vs. Taylor Fritz

Semifinalist: Querrey

OK, this is the section we’ve been waiting for, and where all eyes will be. Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Delpo, Kyrgios, Zverev; Who is most likely to survive?

Djokovic is the highest seed and he likes these courts, but he hasn’t been at his best this year. He could get a challenge from Kyle Edmund in his opener.

Nadal has played well in 2017, and also likes these courts, but he hasn’t been able to close in finals.

Federer closed brilliantly in Australia, but has hardly played in the five weeks since. His opener, though, against either Dudi Sela or Stephane Robert, looks very winnable.

Delpo, despite his continued struggles from the backhand side, got some wins under his belt in Delray Beach, and he has liked the courts and the climate in Indian Wells in the past.

As for Kyrgios, will he be able to re-muster the desire he showed in beating Djokovic last week in Acapulco?

Whatever happens, it will be a shootout to see.

Potential third-round matches to watch: Djokovic vs. Del Potro; Kyrgios vs. A. Zverev; Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco

Potential fourth-round match to watch: Nadal vs. Federer

Spoiler: Verdasco. He just reached the final in Dubai, beat Nadal in Australia last year and has been to the quarters in Indian Wells.

Semifinalist: Del Potro

Semifinals: Murray d. Monfils; Del Potro d. Querrey

Final: Murray d. Del Potro

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