Was Goffin's win more about his potential or Djokovic's struggles?

By the time Novak Djokovic was up 4-2 in the third set against David Goffin in Monte Carlo on Friday, it felt like déjà vu, and the result felt little more than academic.

Djokovic had escaped his first match this week 7-5 in the third over Gilles Simon, and he had done the same in his second match, 6-4 in the third over Pablo Carreño Busta. Against Goffin, Djokovic had survived a slow start: a quick first-set loss, a tumble across the clay and a long, testy, hard-fought hold at 3-2, in which he saved multiple break points. Now Djokovic looked across the net and saw Goffin flat on his back in the middle of a point; the Belgian had slipped and fallen, and while he was able to make a backhand from a sitting position, Djokovic put an overhead away to take the game to deuce. Two more points and he would be up a double break, and the result would really be academic.

Except it was Goffin who won those two points, and it was Djokovic who suddenly lost control of a match that appeared to be his. Serving at 4-3, annoyed by a low sun that was in his eyes, he played a strangely loose, low-energy game and was broken for 4-4. Two games later, with Goffin serving at 5-5, 30-30, Djokovic put a regulation backhand into the net and flashed a sarcastic thumbs-up at his player box. And serving at 5-6, he flipped two drop shots high into the air that Goffin easily put away to go up 15-40. Djokovic, as he always does, battled hard with his back to the wall and saved four match points, but he could never regain control of this contest.

Instead, it was Goffin who did all the things Djokovic normally does to his opponents. It was Goffin who used his high, heavy crosscourt forehand to gain a court-position advantage. It was Goffin who pulled the trigger on his down-the-line backhand for winners. It was Goffin who sent his returns deep, and who pounced on short balls. It was Goffin who outlasted Djokovic in the marathon rallies, including a 27-shot point in the final game. And it was Goffin who survived, in much the same way that Djokovic has been surviving this week, 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, after an 11-minute final game.

It was Goffin’s 23rd win of 2017, the most on the men’s tour. But this was also a breakthrough on a number of levels for the 26-year-old. It was his first win over Djokovic in six tries, and his first over a Top 3 player after 14 straight defeats. It also means he’s reached his first semifinal at a Masters 1000 event on clay, a surface where he should theoretically excel. Goffin has always had the shots to beat the top guys, but in the past he has fallen short both physically—he’s a skinny 150 pounds—and mentally. Goffin has held leads against Djokovic before, but hasn’t been able to close. This time he held a lead, lost it, and gained it back.

So does this match say more about Djokovic’s continued struggles or Goffin’s steady improvement in 2017? I’d say the latter. Djokovic was never sharp in Monte Carlo, and could never put together an extended run of good form. It was his first tournament in more than a month, and his first on clay this year. It also isn’t necessarily a bellwether event; Djokovic lost in the second round in Monte Carlo in 2016 and ended up winning in Madrid and Paris. That doesn’t mean he’s going to turn it around again in 2017; for one thing, if he faces Goffin at the French Open, he’s going to face a guy who knows, for the first time, that he can beat him. But if you’re Djokovic, you can also look around and see that Andy Murray is just coming back from an injury, Roger Federer is resting for Wimbledon and Stan remains Stan. While Rafael Nadal is sharp again, Djokovic has won their last seven matches.

If you’re Goffin, you can finally look around and see yourself in a Monte Carlo semi. You can feel like you have what it takes to prevail in a long, exceedingly physical contest against a Big Four opponent. You can feel that, if you give away a lead against a top guy, it’s still possible to get it back. And you can feel that, even if you’re knocked to the clay—literally—you can bounce back up and win.

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