Surging Bellis & Cilic; Federer's "Big 4": What we've learned on grass

Last week’s slate of grass-court tournaments came as a welcome change after two solid months of clay-court tennis, but they also came with a bit of a hangover after two intense weeks of Grand Slam tennis. This week, Roland Garros is firmly in the rearview mirror—and Wimbledon, just over a week away, is on the horizon.

The All England Club beckons, which has made this week’s slate of grass-court tournaments more interesting, and perhaps revealing. As we head into the weekend and near the year's third major event, here’s what we’ve learned:

Birmingham: Kvitova and Muguruza are making the most of the brief grass swing

On this week’s TENNIS.com Podcast I posed the following question: is this year’s ladies' Wimbledon champion more likely to come from WTA Nos. 1-10, or 11-20? If you side with the latter, you'll be backing Venus Williams, Kristina Mladenovic, French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko, Madison Keys and Timea Bacsinszky—not to mention two semifinalists from the loaded Aegon Classic in Birmingham, Petra Kvitova and Garbine Muguruza.

Kvitova is a two-time Wimbledon champion and Muguruza is a former Wimbledon finalist, and both power players could be seeded lower than they probably should be at the All England Club. We'll see how the tournament's grass-adjusting rankings will help or hinder both players, but Kvitova might make an earlier impact than could have been expected, no matter where she's seeded. She's already won a match at a major (Roland Garros), and she hasn’t dropped a set this week, in just her second tournament of the season. That included a quarterfinal victory over Mladenovic, capped with this jaw-dropping winner:

As for Muguruza, you can never quite count on her—which is reflected in her current No. 14 ranking—but you can't count her out, either. The Spaniard's talent is undeniable and her shots are lethal on lawn. She benefited from a retirement from CoCo Vandeweghe on Friday, after the two grass-lovers split the first two sets, but a win’s a win. And when Muguruza gets on a roll, she’s hard to stop.

Mallorca: I see you, CiCi

Steve Tignor and I discussed Victoria Azarenka’s tour return in Mallorca on the podcast. One player we didn’t touch on was CiCi Bellis, the 18-year-old American who is quickly rising up the rankings. Best known for her upset of Dominika Cibulkova as a 15-year-old at the 2014 U.S. Open, the junior star is quickly establishing herself in the pros. She won a 125K tournament to close 2016, and has posted wins over Peng Shuai, Agnieszka Radwanska, Timea Bacsinszky and Daria Gavrilova in 2017. At the French Open, she reached the third round. On Friday, she reached the semifinals of Mallorca with 6-3, 6-2 win over Kristyna Pliskova.

Pliskova’s serve and flat groundstrokes are tailor made for success on grass courts. But Bellis puts a lot on the ball from both wings, too, and moves with the speed necessary to handle the low-bouncing surface.

It bodes well for Wimbledon, which Bellis has never played in the main draw. Still in relative anonymity, she could win a few rounds at SW19, depending on her draw. In each of the last two Slams she’s played, Bellis has reached the third round. Come U.S. Open time, Bellis will likely be seeded—and saddled with expectations—so look for her to enjoy this carefree run she’s on, all the way through the All England Club.

Halle: The final four, and a more important four, for Federer

Roger Federer’s return to action got off to a strange start in Stuttgart, where he lost to 39-year-old Indian Wells tournament director Tommy Haas. Honestly, it’s hard to decide which is more stunning: Federer’s three significant tournament wins in 2017, or his two shocking losses (the other came against world No. 116 Evgeny Donskoy in Dubai, where Federer also held match points).

But what’s grass-court tennis without a Federer playing the weekend in Halle? For the 13th time, the man with the lifetime playing contract at the Gerry Weber Open reached the tournament’s semifinal stage, doing so with a win over defending champion Florian Mayer. The German with the game’s funkiest two-handed backhand—white men can jump—was unable to summon the shotmaking necessary to top Federer on his favorite surface.

Federer will be going for his ninth title in Halle this weekend. (With Rafael Nadal winning 10 titles in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and at Roland Garros, I bet Federer would like to have a 10-spot of his own somewhere, and Halle is a tour stop at which he could do it.) But he’s already a winner in another respect: with his progression to the semis, and Stan Wawrinka’s early loss at Queen’s Club this week, Federer is guaranteed a Top 4 seed at Wimbledon. Instead of being the most dangerous floater in the draw, Federer's path to the semifinals should be smooth. Unless...

Queen’s Club: Don’t forget about Marin Cilic

Guess how many men's major champions there have been since the 2004 edition of Wimbledon that were not named Federer, Nadal or Novak Djokovic?

The answer is nine. Can you name them all? Click on this thread to see the answers, but I bet some of you will have trouble remembering one of the most recent major exceptions: Marin Cilic.

Diehard Federer fans probably recall Cilic blitzing the Swiss at Flushing Meadows in 2014, en route to an unlikely final against Kei Nishikori. Cilic went on to win the title, but he remains something of a forgotten player. And it's not as if his season has been poor—he's ranked No. 7, having put together an under-the-radar run of solid if mixed results. They include a title on clay and a run to the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. But grass and fast hard courts are where the Croat can do the most damage.

After losing a third-set tiebreaker to Ivo Karlovic last week in the s’-Hertogenbosch semis (hard to blame Cilic for that), Cilic is back into the semis of a grass event at Queen’s Club. There, he’ll try his luck against another massive server, Gilles Muller.

Cilic should have beaten Federer last year at Wimbledon—Federer rallied from two sets down and saved three match points. Even with a Top 10 seed, Cilic will be the most dangerous floater in this year's draw.