This match is, theoretically, a blockbuster. Rafael Nadal is 9-0 in French Open finals; Stan Wawrinka is 3-0 in Grand Slam finals. Rafa is the best ever on clay, but over the last three years Stan had made himself into one of the game’s premier big-match players. Nadal is 15-3 against Wawrinka, but Stan has beaten (an injured) Rafa in a major final, and has also beaten him on clay. Most important, if anyone has the shots to hit Nadal off the court, it’s Wawrinka. Rafa hasn’t dropped a set in six matches in Paris, and he has looked all but invincible so far. But Wawrinka upset Novak Djokovic when he looked all but invincible at this stage of the tournament two years ago.
Still, I say “theoretically” because many of us believed that Nadal’s semifinal with Dominic Thiem might also be a classic. Instead, Rafa lost seven games in three sets. That could happen with Stan, too; Nadal’s unbeaten record in Roland Garros finals shows that once he gets on a roll there, he’s basically impossible to stop. But Rafa will have to play well, and intelligently, to win. This year his serve has become more of a bailout weapon, and he’ll need to vary it well against Wawrinka. In the semis, Nadal also unveiled an aggressive new down-the-line backhand; can he make that work for him again, or will he add a different wrinkle to get Stan out of his groove?
For Wawrinka, the battle may be mental above all else. He has made himself a Grand Slam champion by playing like someone who believes he can beat anyone, including Djokovic; when he falls behind at majors, as he did against Andy Murray in his semifinal, Wawrinka fights tooth and nail until the end.
Will he do that if he falls behind against Nadal? Will he believe that he should beat the king of clay, on his favorite court? If there’s even the slightest doubt, he won’t.
Winner: Nadal