Even if the top spot does not change hands at the All England Club, winning the tournament would give any of the five the inside track on the No. 1 ranking. The champion gets 2,000 points, along with a huge helping of confidence. But the competition for No. 1 could still stay heated because they all have some room to add points during the hard-court season.
ANDY MURRAY
Murray went undefeated on grass in 2016, so it's notable that he's still leading the tour even when those are points off. A repeat would see him lock up No. 1, likely for many more weeks. Even if he doesn't win Queen's or Wimbledon, he's still in a good position to stay No. 1 as long as he has a good showing and neither Nadal nor Wawrinka goes undefeated on grass.
Murray also has around 1,000 points to defend during the hard-court season—less than he usually collects, which means he could still add to his total.
RAFAEL NADAL
If Nadal wins Wimbledon, it's quite simple—he’s No. 1. If he doesn't, it isn’t—he has to get to at least the second week, go a round further than Murray and stay within a round of Wawrinka. And if either Murray or Wawrinka have a good run during Queen's, or Djokovic wins Wimbledon, it would take a little more.
But since Nadal wasn't even playing a year ago because of injury, and doesn't have a lot to defend on hard courts, he should keep gaining ground.
STAN WAWRINKA
Getting to No. 1 would be bigger for Wawrinka than the other four, simply because he hasn't been there before. But to do it on grass he would need to win Wimbledon, and that's something else he hasn't done before.