Nadal’s reascension to No. 1 comes just as he’s begun to falter for the first time this season. Since the French Open, he has lost before the semifinals at three straight events. While he’s the top seed in New York, this time most of us would probably agree with Rafa’s own inevitable assessment that he isn’t the favorite. Judging by his recent form, no match can be deemed a sure thing for Nadal right now; but facing 79th-ranked Dusan Lajovic probably isn’t a bad way to start. In their only meeting, at Roland Garros three years ago, Rafa lost four games over the course of three sets. The first foreseeable trouble for Nadal could come in the fourth round, where he might face either Tomas Berdych or Fabio Fognini.
Also here: Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian, who looked so solid winning in Cincinnati, would seem to be ready to take advantage of a Nadal stumble. Dimitrov has a manageable draw to the quarterfinals.
First-round match to watch: Berdych vs. Ryan Harrison. The American has lost all three of his meetings with the Czech, but he has pushed him in two of them.
Semifinalist: Dimitrov
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Welcome back to New York, Roger Federer—hope you’re feeling better: Of the Top 4 seeds, we’ve given you the toughest draw. Federer, who missed last year’s Open with a knee injury, will start against young American Frances Tiafoe in what will surely be a night match either Monday or Tuesday. We know that a meeting between the 36-year-old and the 19-year-old will be entertaining, but it could be competitive, too. Tiafoe pushed Federer to a first-set tiebreaker in Miami this spring.
After that, the road could get rockier for Federer. If things go as planned, he’ll play Feliciano Lopez in the third round, Kyrgios in the fourth round and Thiem in the quarters. Also lurking near Thiem is the man who beat Federer in the 2009 Open final, Juan Martin del Potro.
Sleeper: Sam Querrey. The Wimbledon semifinalist could be heading for a third-round clash with Kyrgios. They’ve split two matches in 2017.
First-round matches to watch: Federer vs. Tiafoe
Fernando Verdasco vs. Vasek Pospisil
Taylor Fritz vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Semifinalist: Kyrgios