Steve Tignor is at Roland Garros to cover the 2018 French Open. You can read his women's bracket breakdown here, and all of his reports from Paris here.

PARIS—Is there any reason to mention anyone other than Rafael Nadal, if you’re asking who might win the Roland Garros men’s event this year? The short answer, and long answer, is no. But there’s more to a major than the winner, at least as it’s happening. Here’s a look at how the next two weeks in Paris might play out, and who has the best shot of finishing second, third and fourth on the men’s side.

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It isn’t that Nadal can’t lose; it’s just that there’s no reason to think, based on his form, his clay competition this spring, and his draw, to predict that he will. It’s not like Rafa needed a smooth path to the semifinals, but he’s been given one anyway. He starts against Alexandr Dolgopolov, a talented player who has beaten Nadal in the past, at Indian Wells. But best-of-five at Roland Garros is a different story, one that doesn’t play to Dolgo’s sporadic strengths. After that, the bold-faced names in this section are Kevin Anderson, Jack Sock, Denis Shapovalov, Diego Schwartzman, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Richard Gasquet. That’s a Rafa-friendly section.

Semifinalist: Nadal

WATCH—Nadal's pre-tournament press conference at Roland Garros

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This also looks like a Rafa-friendly section. Marin Cilic and Juan Martin del Potro are the top two seeds here, followed by John Isner, Kyle Edmund and Tomas Berdych. Based on his early-year form,Delpo should be the man to beat, but he left Rome hurt, and even healthy he hasn’t done much on clay. Cilic, of course, reached the Australian Open final, and he did make the quarters at Roland Garros last year. How about Edmund? His lethal forehand works on clay, and he’s been to the semis of one Slam already this season. Two straight sounds like a lot to ask at this stage, but whoever comes out of this very open section is likely to be something of a surprise.

First-round matches to watch: Edmund vs. Alex de Minaur; Fabio Fognini vs. Pablo Andujar; Berdych vs. Jeremy Chardy

Semifinalist: Cilic

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Where are those players who might have given Rafa a scare, at least on paper? A few have landed here: Novak Djokovic, David Goffin, Nick Kyrgios, Gael Monfils and Grigor Dimitrov. If nothing else, it’s an entertaining quarter. I’d say it will come down either to Goffin, who is due for a deep run on his favorite surface at Roland Garros, or Djokovic, who showed full-fledged signs of life last week in Rome, and should still be fresh for Paris.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

WATCH—Stories of the Open Era, the 1968 French Open

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Bad luck for the Next Clay Gen, and for the tournament: No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev and No. 7 seed Dominic Thiem have landed in the same quarter, which means one of them will be out in the quarterfinals. Both players made themselves into viable contenders for a French Open title—or at least a runner-up finish—this spring. Speaking of runners-up: Stan Wawrinka, 2015 champion and 2017 finalist, is in this quarter as well; he starts against a player who beat him here a couple of years ago, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

Also here: Kei Nishikori, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov

First-round matches to watch: Lucas Pouille vs. Daniil Medvedev; Frances Tiafoe vs. Sam Querrey

Semifinalist: Zverev

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Men's Bracket Breakdown: Answering the non-Nadal questions in Paris

Men's Bracket Breakdown: Answering the non-Nadal questions in Paris

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