The Rally: On Kerber's win, Serena's run and a one-way Wimbledon final

After Saturday's Wimbledon final, Steve Tignor and Joel Drucker discuss Angelique Kerber's win, Serena Williams' run, and the moment when their title match didn't turn around.

Steve,

To start our discussion of the Wimbledon ladies’ singles final, the first thing I want to do is praise Serena Williams. This was only her fourth tournament back, in the wake of an extremely complicated pregnancy and all the emotional and physical challenges of motherhood. To reach the finals here was incredibly impressive, testimony yet again to Serena’s will and skill. The journey of Serena and Venus has long been the most amazing story in sports—and likely, based on how well Serena did at Wimbledon, a story that will continue for many more years. Coming this far but not winning will be very motivational for Serena. It will be fun to watch her compete this summer in North America. Having just sat in her post-match press conference, I was also impressed with Serena’s manner. Naturally, she was subdued; but there was also a certain methodical focus to her answers as well.

As Serena said, “I'm already deciphering what I need to improve on, what I need to do, what I did wrong, why I did it wrong, how I can do better, that whole madness that goes on in my mind. Then I'm saying, Okay, I do improve with losses. We'll see how it goes.”

Regarding Kerber, my big picture assertion—one I’ve stated repeatedly for years and especially so this fortnight—is that it’s time the world divorced itself from the idea that she is a defensive player. Simply not true.

Better yet to think of it this way: Kerber is a creator, masquerading as a counterpuncher. To be sure, her foot speed helps her track down all sorts of balls many others can’t get. Certainly she knows how to keep a point alive. But there’s a lot more nuance to her than that. When you add the fact that she’s lefty into the equation, the mix is something quite different than that of a retriever. Watch how good Kerber is at redirecting both the ball and the energy flow of a point—with height, with depth, with angle, with power, with spin. Watch how she’s able to shape points with her forehand in a number of creative ways.

Steve, what kind of tactics do you think Kerber employed today that helped her earn the title?

WATCH—Championship point from Kerber's win over Serena at Wimbledon:

Joel,

I certainly echo your thoughts on Serena. Watching her reach something close to her best over this fortnight, I thought back to the way she played just a few months ago in Indian Wells and Miami, where she lost early and really did look like someone who had spent a year away from the game. When she went out to Naomi Osaka in Miami, Serena looked down at the court and opened her eyes wide, as if to say, “Wow, I’ve got a lot of work to do.” She obviously did the work, and as difficult as it may be to believe, it feels like she’s making another new start at 36. In that sense, she’s still following in her big sister’s footsteps after all these years.

As for Kerber, I agree that she’s not purely a defensive player, but she’s not an aggressor, either—maybe “creative counterpuncher” is the best term for her. She reacts, but reacting and working with what your opponent gives you are fundamental parts of the game. Kerber manages to react artistically, always changing speeds, moving her opponent side to side and up and back, and finding the opening with her forehand. In that sense, she’s not an easy opponent for Serena, because she doesn’t give her pace, or a predictable ball, and she has the speed and anticipation to make Serena hit, as they say, one more ball.

That term is a cliché by now, but I think it explains why Kerber has now beaten Serena in two Grand Slam finals—the only woman to do that other than Venus Williams. Serena likes to finish points with ground strokes, but by getting those shots back, Kerber forces her to move forward and try to close at the net instead, something she’s not as comfortable doing. Or at least she’s not as comfortable doing it against Kerber, who has a deadly forehand passing shot.

It was a Kerber forehand pass that won the key point on Saturday—the point where the match appeared to be turning in Serena’s favor, but somehow didn’t. The score was 1-1 in the second set, with Kerber serving. Serena had started punctuating points with “Come on!”s; she had belted a passing shot directly at Kerber from point-blank range; and she had yelled at a ball after hitting a winning drop volley to go up 15-30.

On ESPN, Chris Evert said, “That’s the scream that can change the momentum in a match.”

The signs, in other words, were all pointing to a big shift in Serena’s favor.

At 15-30, Serena came forward again, and again looked ready to knock off an easy volley and let out an arena-rattling scream. But she couldn’t quite get set for Kerber’s surprisingly low lob, and she ended up poking it softly crosscourt. It was the perfect spot for Kerber, who won the point with a running forehand pass. Instead of going with her favorite crosscourt angle, which Serena had been covering, this time she went down the line. Serena’s momentum had been stopped, and Kerber held for 2-1.

Something similar happened in the final game, when Serena rushed forward to put away another swing volley, and hit it long. Serena was a step and a shot short of her best today, and she was playing an opponent who could take advantage of it.

Joel, were there any moments or points that stood out to you? And while we know what Serena’s place in the game is—i.e., GOAT—where do you think Kerber is heading, from an historical perspective?

Steve,

Yes, a few key points showed just how relaxed Kerber was, and that she was playing the ball and the game, instead of feeling the tension that can accompany playing Serena’s staggering résumé.

In the second set, Serena served at 2-3, 15-40. Serena hit a superb, 95-M.P.H. wide-slice serve that pulled Kerber so far off the court that she could only hit a one-handed backhand return. In came Serena to crush a backhand volley crosscourt for a winner.

Sitting behind Serena in the press seats, it was easy to see that she was primed to make a big move and, as she has so often, will herself into the match. But on the next point, about to hit only the fourth shot of the rally, Kerber was pulled wide into her left alley by a crosscourt Serena backhand. Given Kerber’s tendencies and the score, Serena stayed to the left of the center mark, clearly expecting a crosscourt forehand. Instead, Kerber saw a big opening and lashed out with her trademark down-the-line forehand to go up 4-2.

Once Kerber went up 5-2, it was hard to believe she’d win the match on Serena’s serve. Serena held at love. So there was Kerber, seeking to close it out at 5-3. We all know how hard it is to serve out a set or a match—much less Wimbledon—versus anyone, much less Serena. And Kerber’s serve (she’s a natural righty, so her throwing motion is hardly natural) can sometimes shrivel. But on the first point of the game, Kerber directed a fine serve into Serena’s forehand, jamming her and winning the point.

Then, after Serena caught up to 30-30, Kerber fielded a deep return down the middle by hitting a half-volley forehand moonball crosscourt that just touched the line. Serena replied with a deep high drive of her own to Kerber’s forehand. As with the break point earlier in the set, it would have been tempting for Kerber to go crosscourt. But instead, she struck it down the line as calmly as if she were hitting with a friend on a Sunday morning at the park. It went for a winner.

And then, the match point. Kerber’s ad-court serve is often both predictable and weak—that classic lefty slice. Serena was really starting to lean on it, forcefully driving backhands. So what did Kerber do? She hit it right into the middle of the box. Unable to get out of the way of the ball, Serena put it in the net.

It all added up to a magnificent performance. With a third Grand Slam title, Kerber, at least as I see it, is a sure-fire inductee into the International Tennis Hall of Fame. That’s just part of her legacy. In certain ways, she reminds me of another late bloomer, Stan Wawrinka. Like Wawrinka, Kerber for years was a fine crusader. She’d win occasional titles at smaller events, nibble into the later stages of Slams, but hardly be taken seriously as a bonafide contender to win majors. And then, at 28, she earned two major titles in ’16 and has just taken another one. There is something quite pleasing about seeing diligence rewarded—more so than potential squandered (Exhibit A: Marat Safin).

Now the question is if Kerber can rack up even more majors. Very tough to determine. Save for those times when Serena has been the dominator, women’s tennis has been in such a state of flux for many years—lots of Slam winners who then don’t follow up and generate significant results. I’d love to see Kerber make a deep run at the US Open—maybe even a rematch versus Serena. Certainly her fitness and playing style will keep Kerber a contender at the Australian Open for several years. Roland Garros? Not so easy. As Simona Halep proved in winning their quarterfinal match there this year, Kerber is vulnerable versus slow, high balls.

And I think the mix of Kerber’s late arrival to these big titles and what you’ve dubbed her “creative counterpuncher” style will also endear her to the public.

Steve, do you think this time around Kerber will or won’t slump in the wake of a major title run? And how do you think she continues to improve her game?

WATCH—Daily Serve from Day 12 at Wimbledon:

Joel,

Watching Kerber hold up the winner’s plate, I kept thinking back to her win in the second round, way out on Court 12, over 18-year-old Claire Liu. That was the day when the women’s draw was falling apart; by the middle of the week, six of the Top 8 seeds were gone, and by the end of Manic Monday the entire Top 10 was out. Which left Kerber as the highest seed at No. 11.

She could easily have gone out to Liu as well; the Californian is a hard hitter who won the girls’ event here last year. Kerber lost the first set, and struggled in the third. In the past, these were the types of matches where you’d see her react sarcastically to her opponent’s winners, slam balls down after her own misses, and generally act like the world was against her. Not this time. After one backhand winner in the third set, Kerber let out an “Auf ghet’s!”— “Come on!”—that was about as loud as anything I’d heard from her on a court. I remember thinking: “She knows she has an opportunity here.”

And she took it. She snuck past Liu 6-4 in the third, and didn’t drop another set in the tournament. She knocked out four young WTA hopefuls—Naomi Osaka, Belinda Bencic, Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko—along the way, and she kept digging herself out of close sets that she looked destined to lose. Kerber absorbed the best they had to offer—which, in Kasatkina’s case, was a lot—while always remaining calm. It was as if she knew, at 30 years old, having been No. 1, having reached a Wimbledon final, that her more-mature game would prevail in the end. The most amazing thing is that she acted exactly the same way against Serena.

There’s been a lot of talk over the last 10 years about how the sport is aging, and that’s never been more obvious than this weekend, when the men’s and women’s finals featured four players who are over 30 years old—I’m guessing that’s never happened before. Typically, this is seen as somehow unhealthy for tennis. We’re used to watching teenage quasars like Monica Seles, Martina Hingis and Rafael Nadal—among many others—come flying in from out of nowhere and win major titles; when that doesn’t happen, it can feel like the game is withering somehow. But I’d say the opposite; I’d say it’s ripening, and becoming more professional. Who wouldn’t want to keep watching Roger, Rafa, Novak and Serena do their thing for as long as possible?

The same goes for Kerber. We’ve watched her as a solid Top 10 player who never seemed destined for the Hall of Fame. We’ve watched her surprise everyone, win two majors and reach No. 1. We’ve watched her shrink from the brighter spotlight that came with her late success. And now we’ve watched her, at 30, gain an understanding of just what she’s capable of, and that includes beating Serena in a Wimbledon final.

As for her future, Kerber may never be dominant. As we’ve noted here, she reacts to what her opponents are doing, rather than taking control of a match herself—that means she can be overpowered. And while she was calm through this fortnight, Kerber will get frustrated again. Kevin Anderson aside, players are rarely able to remodel their personalities in the middle of their careers. But Kerber will be in the Slam mix. For now, it’s just good to see her fulfill her potential, because she’s a subtly brilliant and beautiful player to watch.

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