In previewing the women’s draw at the Miami Open earlier today, I wrote that there had been 13 WTA tournaments played this year, and that 13 different players had won them. Lest this sound like the “chaos” of the women’s tour at work, here’s another stat: There have been 19 ATP tournaments played so far this year, and they’ve had 19 different winners (h/t to Chris Clarey of the New York Times). Anything can happen on either tour these days, and it doesn’t feel like a bad thing.
Can the men go 20 for 20 in Miami? Here’s a look at the draw.
The question marks begin at the top: Which Novak Djokovic will we see in Miami? The one who has dominated the majors of late, and who has won this event six times, or the one who floundered through a straight-set loss to Philipp Kohlschreiber in Indian Wells, and who has shown some vulnerability at best-of-three-set events? Djokovic should be better than he was last week. He came to Indian Wells after more than a month off, and he used his doubles run with Fabio Fognini there to get his practice cuts in. He’ll start against either Bernard Tomic or Tomas Berdych, could play John Millman after that, and is scheduled, as of now, to face defending Miami champ John Isner in the quarters.
Also here: Indian Wells semifinalist Milos Raonic, who will open against either Max Marterer or Taylor Fritz.
First-round match that will make you think it’s 2014 all over again: Berdych vs. Tomic
Semifinalist: Djokovic
OK, Dominic Thiem beat Roger Federer to win Indian Wells; but is he ready to challenge for the Sunshine Double? It’s a feat reserved for the elite on the men’s side: the Agassis, Federers and Djokovics of the world. Thiem, whose best surface will always be clay, is probably not ready to make that leap on hard courts, but his draw makes it an intriguing possibility. The other seeds in his quarter are: Kei Nishikori, Nick Kyrgios, Gilles Simon, Borna Coric, Gael Monfils, Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Marton Fucsovics. I’d say Thiem would be a solid favorite against any of them at the moment.
Player of Interest: Before withdrawing from Indian Wells, Monfils was playing with newfound intensity. Can he keep it up? If so, he has a chance to go far here.
Semifinalist: Thiem
Last year at Indian Wells, Federer lost a close, fierce final to Juan Martin del Potro, then came to Miami and his lost his first match, to Thanasi Kokkinakis. Now that he’s lost another close, fierce final in Indian Wells, to Thiem, can he avoid a similar fate? Federer should get past his opening round, where he’ll either play Matthew Ebden or a qualifier. But to go farther he may have to beat his countryman Stan Wawrinka for the second time in as many tournaments.
Also here: Two returning seeds, Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov, and a guy who may finally have put his year into gear in Indian Wells, Karen Khachanov.
Semifinalist: Wawrinka
Alexander Zverev started the 2018 season slowly, but found his form in Miami, where he reached the final, and nearly won it. This time around, Zverev comes in as even more of a question mark. He’s started slowly again, and he lost his opener in Indian Wells after being sick for a week.
If Zverev isn’t back in form, who might take advantage? Stefanos Tsitsipas seems like a contender. While he lost fairly early, to Felix Auger-Aliassime, in Indian Wells, the extra rest should do Tsitsipas some good. He never really stopped playing after the Australian Open.
Other young guns in this section: Denis Shapovalov and Frances Tiafoe
Waving good-bye: David Ferrer will make his final stop in Miami, a tournament where—a certain crying baby aside—he has good memories. He’ll play Sam Querrey in the first round.
Semifinalist: Tsitsipas
Semifinals: Djokovic d. Thiem; Tsitsipas d. Wawrinka
Final: Tsitsipas d. Djokovic
